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Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction & odds

Ajax

22:00

Kick-off Sat 31 Oct, 22:00

AZ Alkmaar

Odds 1X2

1Ajax1.66XDraw4.602AZ Alkmaar4.50

AjaxvsAZ Alkmaar

Nito’s pick1.45

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Total goals 2.5Over 2.5

1.45

75%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: The numbers lean clearly one way here. Still football, though: 75% is not 100%.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Eredivisie
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct 22:00 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Total goals 2.5Over 2.575%Confidence1.45Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.45 means bookmakers give it 69%; Nito's confidence is 75% (+6 pts)
3+ goals in 80% of Ajax's last 5 and 50% of AZ Alkmaar's
Goals per game in the last 5: Ajax matches 4.1, AZ Alkmaar matches 3.1
Their 50 meetings average 3.0 goals; both teams scored in 50%

Nito’s note: The numbers lean clearly one way here. Still football, though: 75% is not 100%.

All our picks for this match

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Every market where our confidence is at least 60%

Our picks for this match

Double chanceDraw or AZ Alkmaar

Confidence60%

Indicative price2.30

Double chance: Draw or AZ Alkmaar: our confidence is 60%, 17 points above the 43% the best price of 2.30 implies.

Total goals 2.5Over 2.5High confidence

Confidence75%

Indicative price1.45

Over 2.5 goals: our confidence is 75%, 6 points above the 69% the best price of 1.45 implies.

Asian handicap -0.5AZ Alkmaar +0.5

Confidence60%

Indicative price1.98

Asian handicap: AZ Alkmaar +0.5: our confidence is 60%, 9 points above the 51% the best price of 1.98 implies.

Picks can change until kick-off; the version live at kick-off is the one settled, at a flat 1-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled as two half-stakes. 18+

Today's acca →

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Ajax58%1.66

Draw21%4.60

AZ Alkmaar21%4.50

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 4.2%

Ajax1.6658%Draw4.6021%AZ Alkmaar4.5021%

Double chance

Ajax or Draw1.12Ajax or AZ Alkmaar1.13Draw or AZ Alkmaar2.30

Total goals 2.5margin 4.8%

Over 2.51.3869%Under 2.53.0931%

More markets (3)

Asian handicapmargin 3.5%

Ajax -0.751.8253%AZ Alkmaar +0.752.0647%

1st-half resultmargin 5.7%

Ajax2.0845%Draw2.7934%AZ Alkmaar4.5921%

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Ajax1.9350%AZ Alkmaar1.9350%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

21Ajax wins

11Draws

18AZ Alkmaar wins

Last matches: Ajax

25.10.26EredivisieSparta RotterdamAjax12W
22.10.26Conference LeagueAjaxAtalanta20W
18.10.26EredivisieGroningenAjax25W
15.10.26Conference LeagueHajduk SplitAjax21L
10.10.26EredivisieAjaxNijmegen11D

Last matches: AZ Alkmaar

25.10.26EredivisieAZ AlkmaarTwente02L
22.10.26Europa LeagueArarat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar04W
18.10.26EredivisieCambuurAZ Alkmaar22D
15.10.26Europa LeagueAZ AlkmaarH. Beer Sheva21W
10.10.26EredivisieFeyenoordAZ Alkmaar20L

Head-to-head matches

08.02.26EredivisieAZ AlkmaarAjax11D
14.01.26KNVB CupAZ AlkmaarAjax60L
18.10.25EredivisieAjaxAZ Alkmaar02L
16.03.25EredivisieAjaxAZ Alkmaar22D
14.01.25CupAZ AlkmaarAjax20L
08.12.24EredivisieAZ AlkmaarAjax21L

3.04Avg goals50%Both scored58%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: head-to-head record

50 meetings since 2007: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

21Ajax wins

11Draws

18AZ Alkmaar wins

86:66Goals (Ajax : AZ Alkmaar)

3.04Goals per match

50%BTTS

84%Over 1.5

58%Over 2.5

36%Over 3.5

Ajax at home: 11-5-748:25 goals in 23 games
AZ Alkmaar at home: 11-6-1041:38 goals in 27 games
Ajax's biggest win: 5–0Ajax 5–0 AZ Alkmaar, 7 Oct 2018
AZ Alkmaar's biggest win: 6–0AZ Alkmaar 6–0 Ajax, 14 Jan 2026

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
8 Feb 2026	Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	1–1	Ajax
14 Jan 2026	KNVB Cup	AZ Alkmaar	6–0	Ajax
18 Oct 2025	Eredivisie	Ajax	0–2	AZ Alkmaar
16 Mar 2025	Eredivisie	Ajax	2–2	AZ Alkmaar
14 Jan 2025	Cup	AZ Alkmaar	2–0	Ajax
8 Dec 2024	Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	2–1	Ajax
25 Feb 2024	Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	2–0	Ajax
8 Oct 2023	Eredivisie	Ajax	1–2	AZ Alkmaar
6 May 2023	Eredivisie	Ajax	0–0	AZ Alkmaar
18 Sept 2022	Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	2–1	Ajax
8 May 2022	Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	2–2	Ajax
3 Mar 2022	Cup	AZ Alkmaar	0–2	Ajax
12 Dec 2021	Eredivisie	Ajax	1–2	AZ Alkmaar
25 Apr 2021	Eredivisie	Ajax	2–0	AZ Alkmaar
31 Jan 2021	Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	0–3	Ajax
20 Jan 2021	Cup	AZ Alkmaar	0–1	Ajax
1 Mar 2020	Eredivisie	Ajax	0–2	AZ Alkmaar
15 Dec 2019	Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	1–0	Ajax
17 Mar 2019	Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	1–0	Ajax
7 Oct 2018	Eredivisie	Ajax	5–0	AZ Alkmaar

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Ajax3W 1D 1L · goals 11–6

W25.10EredivisieASparta Rotterdam2–1
W22.10Conference LeagueHAtalanta2–0
W18.10EredivisieAGroningen5–2
L15.10Conference LeagueAHajduk Split1–2
D10.10EredivisieHNijmegen1–1

AZ Alkmaar2W 1D 2L · goals 8–7

L25.10EredivisieHTwente0–2
W22.10Europa LeagueAArarat-Armenia4–0
D18.10EredivisieACambuur2–2
W15.10Europa LeagueHH. Beer Sheva2–1
L10.10EredivisieAFeyenoord0–2

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

AjaxAZ Alkmaar

2.8Goals scored per game1.8

1.3Goals conceded per game1.3

80%Both teams scored50%

80%Over 2.5 goals50%

2Clean sheets2

0%Failed to score30%

2-2-1Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)2-1-2

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

AjaxAZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie 2026/2027 · 7 gamesEredivisie 2026/2027 · 7 games

3.0Goals scored2.6

1.3Goals conceded0.9

8.0Corners8.6

24.7Shots19.6

64%Possession59%

2.0Yellow cards0.9

29%Clean sheets43%

0%Failed to score0%

1-2-1Home / away record (W-D-L)3-0-0

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Eredivisie

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
1	Feyenoord	10	+21	24	DWWWW
2	Ajax	10	+16	21	WWDDW
3	PSV	10	+15	20	DLWLW
4	Twente	10	+9	20	WLDWW
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	+8	20	LDLWD
6	Sittard	10	0	18	WDDWL

Injuries and absences

Players ruled out or doubtful for this match

Injuries & suspensions

Ajax

✕S. AdingraLacking Match Fitness
✕Caio HenriqueThigh Injury
✕K. DolbergKnee Injury
✕O. EdvardsenInactive
✕A. GaaeiInjury
?S. BerghuisInjury

AZ Alkmaar

✕J. HornkampInjury
✕S. ResinkKnee Injury
✕K. SmitInjury
✕J. ZoetInactive
?W. GoesInactive

✕ out · ? doubtful

Comments

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About this match

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar preview

On Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 22:00, Ajax take on AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie.

Form · last 5 matches

AjaxWWWLD11 scored · 6 conceded

AZ AlkmaarLWDWL8 scored · 7 conceded

Key facts · last 5

AjaxAZ Alkmaar

2.8Goals scored per game1.8

1.3Goals conceded per game1.3

80%Both teams scored50%

80%Over 2.5 goals50%

2Clean sheets2

Head-to-head in numbers

21Ajax wins

11Draws

18AZ Alkmaar wins

50 meetings · 3.0 goals per game · both teams scored in 50%

What's at stake

Ajax2nd21 pts · 10 played

AZ Alkmaar5th20 pts · 10 played

Ajax lead by 1 pts

Our pick

Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.575%Confidence1.45Price

+2 more picks in the Prediction tab

Read the full match preview

Bookmakers make Ajax the favourite at 1.66 (58% implied), with the draw at 4.60 (21%).

The selection we rate highest is Over 2.5 goals: 75% confidence, priced at 1.45.

We also have Double chance: Draw or AZ Alkmaar (60%, 2.30) and Asian handicap: AZ Alkmaar +0.5 (60%, 1.98).

Ajax come into the game with WWWLD in their last 5 (11 scored, 6 conceded), while AZ Alkmaar have LWDWL (8 scored, 7 conceded).

Over 2.5 goals came in 80% of Ajax's recent games and 50% of AZ Alkmaar's, with both teams scoring in 80% and 50%.

Per game, Ajax average 2.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (clean sheets: 2), AZ Alkmaar 1.8 and 1.3 (clean sheets: 2).

Head-to-head over 50 previous meetings: Ajax 21 wins, AZ Alkmaar 18 wins, draws 11.

Those 50 games averaged 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

The last meeting (2026-02-08) ended AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax.

In the table, Ajax are 2nd (21 pts from 10 games) and AZ Alkmaar are 5th (20 pts from 10).

Nito explains: Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar mean?

The best prices are 1.66 for a Ajax win, 4.60 for a draw and 4.50 for a AZ Alkmaar win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.66 returns 16.60 if Ajax win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 4.2% removed) that is 58% Ajax, 21% draw and 21% AZ Alkmaar.

What does Nito's pick "Over 2.5 goals" mean?

It wins if the match has more than 2.5 goals in total. At 1.45, the price implies a 69% chance; Nito's data rates it at 75%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Ajax and AZ Alkmaar matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 80% of Ajax's last 10 matches and 50% of AZ Alkmaar's last 10. In their 50 recorded meetings it was 50%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Ajax reached that in 80% of their last 10 matches, AZ Alkmaar in 50% of their last 10. Their 50 meetings averaged 3.0 goals (58% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WWWLD mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Ajax, last 5: 3 W · 1 D · 1 L (11 scored, 6 conceded). AZ Alkmaar, last 5: 2 W · 1 D · 2 L (8 scored, 7 conceded).

Where do Ajax and AZ Alkmaar stand in the table?

Ajax are 2nd with 21 points from 10 games. AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20 points from 10 games. The gap between them is 1 points.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: questions & answers

Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our pick is Double chance: Draw or AZ Alkmaar with 60% confidence (best price 2.30). Bookmaker odds imply Ajax 58%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar 21%.

Will both teams score in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

Both teams scored in 50% of their 50 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 80% of Ajax's matches and 50% of AZ Alkmaar's.

What are the odds for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

Odds: Ajax 1.66, draw 4.60, AZ Alkmaar 4.50. Our pick Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.45.

When is the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar kick-off?

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar kicks off on Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 22:00 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar?

50 meetings: Ajax 21 wins, 11 draws, AZ Alkmaar 18 wins. Those 50 games averaged 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

Other Eredivisie matches on 31 Oct

All Eredivisie fixtures

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction & odds

Ajax

AZ Alkmaar

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

All our picks for this match

Our picks for this match

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds