Value bets today
Matches where our probability is higher than the bookmaker's odds imply. One selection per match, sorted by edge, refreshed every 10 minutes.
Updated
Today
EliteserienBodo/Glimt to winMatch result (1X2)
- Our probability
- 62.0%
- Odds
- 1.74
- Implied
- 57.5%
- Edge
- +4.5 pts
Market 61.2% without margin · our forecast 65.0%
Bundesliga 2Under 2.5 goalsTotal goals 2.5
- Our probability
- 41.4%
- Odds
- 2.70
- Implied
- 37.0%
- Edge
- +4.4 pts
Market 35.6% without margin · our forecast 65.0%
League TwoChesterfield to winMatch result (1X2)
- Our probability
- 53.9%
- Odds
- 1.98
- Implied
- 50.5%
- Edge
- +3.4 pts
Market 53.7% without margin · our forecast 55.0%
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Cottbus
Bochum
Newport
ChesterfieldNext days
EredivisieUnder 2.5 goalsTotal goals 2.5
- Our probability
- 47.0%
- Odds
- 2.31
- Implied
- 43.3%
- Edge
- +3.7 pts
Market 41.2% without margin · our forecast 70.0%
Danish SuperligaUnder 2.5 goalsTotal goals 2.5
- Our probability
- 43.5%
- Odds
- 2.50
- Implied
- 40.0%
- Edge
- +3.5 pts
Market 38.1% without margin · our forecast 65.0%
Ligue 1Under 2.5 goalsTotal goals 2.5
- Our probability
- 43.7%
- Odds
- 2.46
- Implied
- 40.7%
- Edge
- +3.0 pts
Market 39.3% without margin · 3 forecasts, avg 61.3%
Zwolle
Den Haag
Brondby
Aarhus
Strasbourg
Auxerre18+Odds change quickly, so check the price at the bookmaker. A value bet is a long-run idea, not a sure win. Gamble responsibly. Responsible gambling
What is a value bet?
A bet has value when its chance of winning is higher than its odds suggest. Odds of 1.74 imply 1 ÷ 1.74 = 57.5%. If our probability is 62.0%, the edge is 62.0 − 57.5 = +4.5 points, and the expected return on a 1-unit stake is 62.0% × 1.74 − 1 = +0.08 units.
Value is about the price, not certainty: a value bet still loses often. Only over many bets does a real edge show, and only if the probability estimate is good.
Value bets record
No settled value bets yet. The record starts with this list: each bet settles after its match ends.
How we calculate it
Market probability: the odds of the sharpest bookmaker in our feed with the margin removed (de-vig: each 1 ÷ odds divided by their sum). Without it, we average the de-vigged prices of the other books in the feed.
Our probability = 80% market probability + 20% the average confidence of our forecasts for that selection. The forecasts get a small weight on purpose: tested on 1,594 settled selections, their raw confidence ran too high (picks rated 55–65% won 44–51%).
Implied probability = 1 ÷ the best price among our bookmakers, with the margin left in: that is the break-even you actually get. Edge = our probability − implied probability.
Shown only when: edge 3–15 points (a bigger gap is usually a stale price), our probability ≥ 40%, odds 1.40–3.50, over/under on 1.5, 2.5 or 3.5 goals and Asian handicap on half-goal lines only (no push). One selection per match: the biggest edge.
The record: the selection that is on the list at kick-off is frozen at its last price and settled from the final score at a flat 1-unit stake. Selections that drop off before kick-off are not counted.