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Arouca vs Nacional prediction & odds

Arouca

17:30

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 17:30

Nacional

Odds 1X2

1Arouca1.86Nito’s pickXDraw3.812Nacional4.47

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

AroucavsNacional

Nito’s pick1.86

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Match result (1X2)Arouca

1.86

60%Confidence

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Primeira Liga
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 17:30 EET
Stadium: Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Capacity: 7,000

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Match result (1X2)Arouca60%Confidence1.86Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.86 means bookmakers give it 54%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+6 pts)
Arouca won 3 of their last 5 (goals 9–7); Nacional won 1 (goals 4–11)
In the table Arouca are 5th with 17 pts, Nacional 15th with 7 pts
In 14 meetings Arouca won 7, Nacional won 2, 5 were drawn

Best price 1.86 means bookmakers give it 54%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+6 pts)

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Arouca53%1.86

Draw26%3.81

Nacional22%4.47

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 2.4%

Arouca1.8653%Draw3.8126%Nacional4.4722%

Double chance

Arouca or Draw1.16Arouca or Nacional1.21Draw or Nacional1.97

Total goals 2.5margin 4.3%

Over 2.51.8552%Under 2.51.9948%

More markets (3)

Asian handicapmargin 3.8%

Arouca -0.752.0148%Nacional +0.751.8552%

1st-half resultmargin 5.6%

Arouca2.4139%Draw2.3440%Nacional4.6720%

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Arouca1.9450%Nacional1.9250%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

7Arouca wins

5Draws

2Nacional wins

Last matches: Arouca

24.10.26Primeira LigaAlvercaArouca01W
18.10.26Taça de PortugalOs BelenensesArouca34W
11.10.26Primeira LigaAroucaEstrela10W
19.09.26Primeira LigaSporting CPArouca22D
13.09.26Primeira LigaAroucaSanta Clara12L

Last matches: Nacional

25.10.26Primeira LigaNacionalBraga10W
17.10.26Taça de PortugalSanjoanenseNacional10L
11.10.26Primeira LigaRio AveNacional32L
19.09.26Primeira LigaNacionalFamalicao04L
12.09.26Primeira LigaNacionalAlverca13L

Head-to-head matches

21.02.26Primeira LigaAroucaNacional30W
20.09.25Primeira LigaNacionalArouca12W
01.02.25Portuguese LigaNacionalArouca12W
25.08.24Portuguese LigaAroucaNacional10W
06.05.18Segunda LigaAroucaNacional01L
22.12.17Segunda LigaNacionalArouca22D

2.64Avg goals50%Both scored50%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Arouca vs Nacional: head-to-head record

14 meetings since 2013: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

7Arouca wins

5Draws

2Nacional wins

23:14Goals (Arouca : Nacional)

2.64Goals per match

50%BTTS

79%Over 1.5

50%Over 2.5

21%Over 3.5

Arouca at home: 4-2-113:5 goals in 7 games
Nacional at home: 1-3-39:10 goals in 7 games
Arouca's biggest win: 3–0Arouca 3–0 Nacional, 21 Feb 2026
Nacional's biggest win: 2–0Nacional 2–0 Arouca, 31 Aug 2014

Meetings (14 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
21 Feb 2026	Primeira Liga	Arouca	3–0	Nacional
20 Sept 2025	Primeira Liga	Nacional	1–2	Arouca
1 Feb 2025	Portuguese Liga	Nacional	1–2	Arouca
25 Aug 2024	Portuguese Liga	Arouca	1–0	Nacional
6 May 2018	Segunda Liga	Arouca	0–1	Nacional
22 Dec 2017	Segunda Liga	Nacional	2–2	Arouca
28 Jan 2017	Portuguese Liga	Nacional	1–1	Arouca
21 Aug 2016	Portuguese Liga	Arouca	2–0	Nacional
1 May 2016	Portuguese Liga	Arouca	3–0	Nacional
2 Jan 2016	Portuguese Liga	Nacional	2–2	Arouca
8 Feb 2015	Portuguese Liga	Arouca	3–3	Nacional
31 Aug 2014	Portuguese Liga	Nacional	2–0	Arouca
16 Feb 2014	Portuguese Liga	Arouca	1–1	Nacional
15 Sept 2013	Portuguese Liga	Nacional	0–1	Arouca

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Arouca3W 1D 1L · goals 9–7

W24.10Primeira LigaAAlverca1–0
W18.10Taça de PortugalAOs Belenenses4–3
W11.10Primeira LigaHEstrela1–0
D19.09Primeira LigaASporting CP2–2
L13.09Primeira LigaHSanta Clara1–2

Nacional1W 0D 4L · goals 4–11

W25.10Primeira LigaHBraga1–0
L17.10Taça de PortugalASanjoanense0–1
L11.10Primeira LigaARio Ave2–3
L19.09Primeira LigaHFamalicao

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

AroucaNacional

1.6Goals scored per game1.0

1.0Goals conceded per game1.9

40%Both teams scored40%

50%Over 2.5 goals50%

5Clean sheets2

20%Failed to score40%

3-0-1Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)0-1-4

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

AroucaNacional

Primeira Liga 2026/2027 · 7 gamesPrimeira Liga 2025/2026 · 34 games

1.4Goals scored1.1

1.0Goals conceded1.3

2.9Corners4.4

11.0Shots12.6

50%Possession46%

2.6Yellow cards2.8

43%Clean sheets24%

29%Failed to score32%

2-0-1Home / away record (W-D-L)3-5-9

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Primeira Liga

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
4	Santa Clara	9	+7	18	LWDWW
5	Arouca	9	+5	17	WWDLD
6	Academico Viseu	9	+2	17	WWWWW
14	Maritimo	9	-10	8	LLDLL
15	Nacional	9	-8	7	WLLLL
16	Casa Pia	9	-12

About this match

Arouca vs Nacional preview

Primeira Liga fixture: Arouca welcome Nacional on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 (17:30 kick-off).

Form · last 5 matches

AroucaWWWDL9 scored · 7 conceded

NacionalWLLLL4 scored · 11 conceded

Key facts · last 5

AroucaNacional

1.6Goals scored per game1.0

1.0Goals conceded per game1.9

40%Both teams scored40%

50%Over 2.5 goals50%

5Clean sheets2

Head-to-head in numbers

7Arouca wins

5Draws

2Nacional wins

14 meetings · 2.6 goals per game · both teams scored in 50%

What's at stake

Arouca5th17 pts · 9 played

Nacional15th7 pts · 9 played

Arouca lead by 10 pts

Our pick

Arouca to winArouca60%Confidence1.86Price

Read the full match preview

The game is played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.

The best available prices are 1.86 on Arouca, 3.81 on the draw and 4.47 on Nacional, which is roughly 53%, 26% and 22% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Our strongest pick is Arouca to win with 60% confidence at a best price of 1.86.

Recent form over the last 5: Arouca WWWDL (goals 9–7), Nacional WLLLL (goals 4–11).

Both teams scored in 40% of Arouca's recent games and 40% of Nacional's; over 2.5 goals landed in 50% and 50% respectively.

Per game, Arouca average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (clean sheets: 5), Nacional 1.0 and 1.9 (clean sheets: 2).

Across 14 head-to-head games the record reads 7–5–2 (wins–draws–losses) from Arouca's side.

Those 14 games averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

The last meeting (2026-02-21) ended Arouca 3–0 Nacional.

Arouca sit 5th on 17 pts after 9 games, Nacional 15th on 7 pts.

Nito explains: Arouca vs Nacional

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Arouca vs Nacional mean?

The best prices are 1.86 for a Arouca win, 3.81 for a draw and 4.47 for a Nacional win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.86 returns 18.60 if Arouca win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 2.4% removed) that is 53% Arouca, 26% draw and 22% Nacional.

What does Nito's pick "Arouca to win" mean?

It wins only if Arouca win; a draw or a Nacional win loses. At 1.86, the price implies a 54% chance; Nito's data rates it at 60%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Arouca and Nacional matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 40% of Arouca's last 10 matches and 40% of Nacional's last 10. In their 14 recorded meetings it was 50%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Arouca reached that in 50% of their last 10 matches, Nacional in 50% of their last 10. Their 14 meetings averaged 2.6 goals (50% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WWWDL mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Arouca, last 5: 3 W · 1 D · 1 L (9 scored, 7 conceded). Nacional, last 5: 1 W · 0 D · 4 L (4 scored, 11 conceded).

Where do Arouca and Nacional stand in the table?

Arouca are 5th with 17 points from 9 games. Nacional are 15th with 7 points from 9 games. The gap between them is 10 points.

Arouca vs Nacional: questions & answers

Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?

Our pick is Arouca to win with 60% confidence (best price 1.86). Bookmaker odds imply Arouca 53%, draw 26%, Nacional 22%.

Will both teams score in Arouca vs Nacional?

Both teams scored in 50% of their 14 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 40% of Arouca's matches and 40% of Nacional's.

What are the odds for Arouca vs Nacional?

Odds: Arouca 1.86, draw 3.81, Nacional 4.47. Our pick Arouca to win is available at 1.86.

When is the Arouca vs Nacional kick-off?

Arouca vs Nacional kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 17:30 (GMT+2) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.

What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Nacional?

14 meetings: Arouca 7 wins, 5 draws, Nacional 2 wins. Those 14 games averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

Other Primeira Liga matches on 1 Nov

All Primeira Liga fixtures

Arouca vs Nacional prediction & odds

Arouca

Nacional

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds