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Lugano vs Basel prediction & odds

Lugano

17:30

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 17:30

Basel

Odds 1X2

1Lugano1.59Nito’s pickXDraw4.722Basel4.90

Stadio di Cornaredo

LuganovsBasel

Nito’s pick1.59

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Match result (1X2)Lugano

1.59

75%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: The numbers lean clearly one way here. Still football, though: 75% is not 100%.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Swiss Super League
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 17:30 EET
Stadium: Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity: 5,476
City: Lugano

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Match result (1X2)Lugano75%Confidence1.59Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.59 means bookmakers give it 63%; Nito's confidence is 75% (+12 pts)
Lugano won 5 of their last 5 (goals 19–6); Basel won 2 (goals 8–8)
In the table Lugano are 1st with 31 pts, Basel 7th with 14 pts
In 45 meetings Lugano won 13, Basel won 18, 14 were drawn

Nito’s note: The numbers lean clearly one way here. Still football, though: 75% is not 100%.

All our picks for this match

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Every market where our confidence is at least 60%

Our picks for this match

Match result (1X2)LuganoHigh confidence

Confidence75%

Indicative price1.59

We rate Lugano to win at 75% — the price of 1.59 implies only 63%.

Both teams to scoreNo

Confidence60%

Indicative price2.44

We rate Both teams to score: No at 60% — the price of 2.44 implies only 41%.

Picks can change until kick-off; the version live at kick-off is the one settled, at a flat 1-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled as two half-stakes. 18+

Today's acca →

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Lugano60%1.59

Draw20%4.72

Basel20%4.90

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 4.5%

Lugano1.5960%Draw4.7220%Basel4.9020%

Double chance

Lugano or Draw1.13Lugano or Basel1.16Draw or Basel2.25

Total goals 2.5margin 5.3%

Over 2.51.4565%Under 2.52.7535%

More markets (2)

1st-half resultmargin 17.0%

Lugano1.9145%Draw2.4934%Basel4.0921%

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Lugano1.9350%Basel1.9350%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

13Lugano wins

14Draws

18Basel wins

Last matches: Lugano

25.10.26Swiss Super LeagueThunLugano23W
22.10.26Conference LeagueGetafeLugano25W
18.10.26Swiss CupPully FootballLugano04W
15.10.26Conference LeagueLuganoCrvena zvezda32W
10.10.26Swiss Super LeagueLuganoLuzern40W

Last matches: Basel

25.10.26Swiss Super LeagueBaselGrasshoppers00D
16.10.26Swiss CupStade NyonnaisBasel03W
11.10.26Swiss Super LeagueVaduzBasel30L
20.09.26Swiss Super LeagueBaselSt. Gallen13L
13.09.26Swiss Super LeagueLuzernBasel24W

Head-to-head matches

06.09.26Swiss Super LeagueBaselLugano13W
17.05.26Swiss Super LeagueLuganoBasel40W
15.02.26Swiss Super LeagueBaselLugano11D
09.11.25Swiss Super LeagueBaselLugano01W
10.08.25Swiss Super LeagueLuganoBasel31W
10.05.25Super LeagueLuganoBasel25L

3.13Avg goals62%Both scored60%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Lugano vs Basel: head-to-head record

45 meetings since 2015: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

13Lugano wins

14Draws

18Basel wins

60:81Goals (Lugano : Basel)

3.13Goals per match

62%BTTS

87%Over 1.5

60%Over 2.5

44%Over 3.5

Lugano at home: 7-7-832:40 goals in 22 games
Basel at home: 10-7-641:28 goals in 23 games
Lugano's biggest win: 4–0Lugano 4–0 Basel, 17 May 2026
Basel's biggest win: 0–4Lugano 0–4 Basel, 14 Oct 2017

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
6 Sept 2026	Swiss Super League	Basel	1–3	Lugano
17 May 2026	Swiss Super League	Lugano	4–0	Basel
15 Feb 2026	Swiss Super League	Basel	1–1	Lugano
9 Nov 2025	Swiss Super League	Basel	0–1	Lugano
10 Aug 2025	Swiss Super League	Lugano	3–1	Basel
10 May 2025	Super League	Lugano	2–5	Basel
6 Apr 2025	Super League	Basel	2–0	Lugano
19 Jan 2025	Super League	Lugano	2–2	Basel
27 Jul 2024	Super League	Basel	1–2	Lugano
2 Apr 2024	Super League	Lugano	2–0	Basel
28 Feb 2024	Cup	Basel	2–2	Lugano
3 Feb 2024	Super League	Basel	0–1	Lugano
6 Dec 2023	Super League	Lugano	1–3	Basel
21 May 2023	Super League	Basel	1–1	Lugano
26 Feb 2023	Super League	Lugano	2–2	Basel
9 Oct 2022	Super League	Lugano	1–0	Basel
14 Aug 2022	Super League	Basel	0–2	Lugano
22 May 2022	Super League	Basel	2–1	Lugano
6 Mar 2022	Super League	Lugano	0–2	Basel
24 Oct 2021	Super League	Basel	2–0	Lugano

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Lugano5W 0D 0L · goals 19–6

W25.10Swiss Super LeagueAThun3–2
W22.10Conference LeagueAGetafe5–2
W18.10Swiss CupAPully Football4–0
W15.10Conference LeagueHCrvena zvezda3–2
W10.10Swiss Super LeagueHLuzern4–0

Basel2W 1D 2L · goals 8–8

D25.10Swiss Super LeagueHGrasshoppers0–0
W16.10Swiss CupAStade Nyonnais3–0
L11.10Swiss Super LeagueAVaduz0–3
L20.09Swiss Super LeagueHSt. Gallen1–3
W13.09Swiss Super LeagueALuzern4–2

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

LuganoBasel

3.3Goals scored per game1.7

1.0Goals conceded per game2.2

60%Both teams scored70%

90%Over 2.5 goals90%

4Clean sheets2

0%Failed to score20%

4-1-0Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)3-1-1

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Super League

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lugano	11	+25	31	WWWWD
2	Young Boys	11	+17	25	WWWDD
6	St. Gallen	11	-4	16	LWWLL
7	Basel	11	-3	14	DLLWL
8	Luzern	11	-6	12	LLWLD

Comments

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About this match

Lugano vs Basel preview

Swiss Super League fixture: Lugano welcome Basel on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 (17:30 kick-off).

Form · last 5 matches

LuganoWWWWW19 scored · 6 conceded

BaselDWLLW8 scored · 8 conceded

Key facts · last 5

LuganoBasel

3.3Goals scored per game1.7

1.0Goals conceded per game2.2

60%Both teams scored70%

90%Over 2.5 goals90%

4Clean sheets2

Head-to-head in numbers

13Lugano wins

14Draws

18Basel wins

45 meetings · 3.1 goals per game · both teams scored in 62%

What's at stake

Lugano1st31 pts · 11 played

Basel7th14 pts · 11 played

Lugano lead by 17 pts

Our pick

Lugano to winLugano75%Confidence1.59Price

+1 more picks in the Prediction tab

Read the full match preview

The game is played at Stadio di Cornaredo.

The best available prices are 1.59 on Lugano, 4.72 on the draw and 4.90 on Basel, which is roughly 60%, 20% and 20% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

The selection we rate highest is Lugano to win: 75% confidence, priced at 1.59.

We also have Both teams to score: No (60%, 2.44).

Recent form over the last 5: Lugano WWWWW (goals 19–6), Basel DWLLW (goals 8–8).

Both teams scored in 60% of Lugano's recent games and 70% of Basel's; over 2.5 goals landed in 90% and 90% respectively.

Per game, Lugano average 3.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (clean sheets: 4), Basel 1.7 and 2.2 (clean sheets: 2).

Across 45 head-to-head games the record reads 13–14–18 (wins–draws–losses) from Lugano's side.

Those 45 games averaged 3.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 62% of them.

The last meeting (2026-09-06) ended Basel 1–3 Lugano.

Lugano sit 1st on 31 pts after 11 games, Basel 7th on 14 pts.

Nito explains: Lugano vs Basel

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Lugano vs Basel mean?

The best prices are 1.59 for a Lugano win, 4.72 for a draw and 4.90 for a Basel win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.59 returns 15.90 if Lugano win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 4.5% removed) that is 60% Lugano, 20% draw and 20% Basel.

What does Nito's pick "Lugano to win" mean?

It wins only if Lugano win; a draw or a Basel win loses. At 1.59, the price implies a 63% chance; Nito's data rates it at 75%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Lugano and Basel matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 60% of Lugano's last 10 matches and 70% of Basel's last 10. In their 45 recorded meetings it was 62%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Lugano reached that in 90% of their last 10 matches, Basel in 90% of their last 10. Their 45 meetings averaged 3.1 goals (60% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WWWWW mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Lugano, last 5: 5 W · 0 D · 0 L (19 scored, 6 conceded). Basel, last 5: 2 W · 1 D · 2 L (8 scored, 8 conceded).

Where do Lugano and Basel stand in the table?

Lugano are 1st with 31 points from 11 games. Basel are 7th with 14 points from 11 games. The gap between them is 17 points.

Lugano vs Basel: questions & answers

Who will win Lugano vs Basel?

Our pick is Lugano to win with 75% confidence (best price 1.59). Bookmaker odds imply Lugano 60%, draw 20%, Basel 20%.

Will both teams score in Lugano vs Basel?

Our both-teams-to-score pick is No (60% confidence, 2.44). Both teams scored in 62% of their 45 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 60% of Lugano's matches and 70% of Basel's.

What are the odds for Lugano vs Basel?

Odds: Lugano 1.59, draw 4.72, Basel 4.90. Our pick Lugano to win is available at 1.59.

When is the Lugano vs Basel kick-off?

Lugano vs Basel kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 17:30 (GMT+2) at Stadio di Cornaredo.

What is the head-to-head record between Lugano and Basel?

45 meetings: Lugano 13 wins, 14 draws, Basel 18 wins. Those 45 games averaged 3.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 62% of them.

Other Swiss Super League matches on 1 Nov

All Swiss Super League fixtures

Lugano vs Basel prediction & odds

Lugano

Basel

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

All our picks for this match

Our picks for this match

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds