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Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction & odds

Casa Pia

22:15

Kick-off Fri 30 Oct, 22:15

Sporting CP

Odds 1X2

1Casa Pia11.00XDraw6.202Sporting CP1.29

Casa PiavsSporting CP

Nito’s pick1.51

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Asian handicap +1.25Sporting CP -1.25

1.51

70%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: A reasonable lean, not a certainty: about 70% by our numbers.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Liga Portugal
Kick-off: Fri 30 Oct 22:15 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Asian handicap +1.25Sporting CP -1.2570%Confidence1.51Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.51 means bookmakers give it 66%; Nito's confidence is 70% (+4 pts)
Sporting CP won 3 of their last 5 (goals 10–7); Casa Pia won 3 (goals 6–6)
In the table Sporting CP are 3rd with 18 pts, Casa Pia 16th with 7 pts
In 9 meetings Sporting CP won 9, Casa Pia won 0, 0 were drawn

Best price 1.51 means bookmakers give it 66%; Nito's confidence is 70% (+4 pts)

Nito’s note: A reasonable lean, not a certainty: about 70% by our numbers.

All our picks for this match

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Every market where our confidence is at least 60%

Our picks for this match

Both teams to scoreNoHigh confidence

Confidence65%

Indicative price1.70

Both teams to score: No: our confidence is 65%, 6 points above the 59% the best price of 1.70 implies.

Asian handicap +1.25Sporting CP -1.25High confidence

Confidence70%

Indicative price1.51

Asian handicap: Sporting CP -1.25: our confidence is 70%, 4 points above the 66% the best price of 1.51 implies.

Picks can change until kick-off; the version live at kick-off is the one settled, at a flat 1-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled as two half-stakes. 18+

Today's acca →

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Casa Pia9%11.00

Draw16%6.20

Sporting CP75%1.29

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 2.7%

Casa Pia11.009%Draw6.2016%Sporting CP1.2975%

Double chance

Casa Pia or Draw3.31Casa Pia or Sporting CP1.10Draw or Sporting CP1.02

1st-half resultmargin 4.4%

Casa Pia9.2310%Draw2.8234%Sporting CP1.7256%

More markets (1)

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Casa Pia1.9350%Sporting CP1.9350%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

0Casa Pia wins

0Draws

9Sporting CP wins

Last matches: Casa Pia

24.10.26Primeira LigaEstrelaCasa Pia02W
18.10.26Taça de PortugalFC AlpendoradaCasa Pia01W
10.10.26Primeira LigaCasa PiaSanta Clara01L
20.09.26Primeira LigaEstorilCasa Pia12W
12.09.26Primeira LigaCasa PiaFC Porto14L

Last matches: Sporting CP

27.10.26League CupSporting CPMaritimo21W
25.10.26Primeira LigaSporting CPAcademico Viseu12L
21.10.26UEFA Champions LeagueSporting CPLASK23L
13.10.26UEFA Champions LeagueLensSporting CP02W
09.10.26Primeira LigaBragaSporting CP13W

Head-to-head matches

16.01.26Primeira LigaSporting CPCasa Pia30L
08.08.25Primeira LigaCasa PiaSporting CP02L
09.03.25Portuguese LigaCasa PiaSporting CP13L
05.10.24Portuguese LigaSporting CPCasa Pia20L
29.01.24Portuguese LigaSporting CPCasa Pia80L
18.08.23Portuguese LigaCasa PiaSporting CP12L

4.00Avg goals56%Both scored78%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: head-to-head record

9 meetings since 2021: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

0Casa Pia wins

0Draws

9Sporting CP wins

7:29Goals (Casa Pia : Sporting CP)

4.00Goals per match

56%BTTS

100%Over 1.5

78%Over 2.5

44%Over 3.5

Casa Pia at home: 0-0-56:13 goals in 5 games
Sporting CP at home: 4-0-016:1 goals in 4 games
Sporting CP's biggest win: 8–0Sporting CP 8–0 Casa Pia, 29 Jan 2024

Meetings (9 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
16 Jan 2026	Primeira Liga	Sporting CP	3–0	Casa Pia
8 Aug 2025	Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0–2	Sporting CP
9 Mar 2025	Portuguese Liga	Casa Pia	1–3	Sporting CP
5 Oct 2024	Portuguese Liga	Sporting CP	2–0	Casa Pia
29 Jan 2024	Portuguese Liga	Sporting CP	8–0	Casa Pia
18 Aug 2023	Portuguese Liga	Casa Pia	1–2	Sporting CP
9 Apr 2023	Portuguese Liga	Casa Pia	3–4	Sporting CP
22 Oct 2022	Portuguese Liga	Sporting CP	3–1	Casa Pia
22 Dec 2021	Cup	Casa Pia	1–2	Sporting CP

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Casa Pia3W 0D 2L · goals 6–6

W24.10Primeira LigaAEstrela2–0
W18.10Taça de PortugalAFC Alpendorada1–0
L10.10Primeira LigaHSanta Clara0–1
W20.09Primeira LigaAEstoril2–1
L12.09Primeira LigaHFC Porto1–4

Sporting CP3W 0D 2L · goals 10–7

W27.10League CupHMaritimo2–1
L25.10Primeira LigaHAcademico Viseu1–2
L21.10UEFA Champions LeagueHLASK2–3
W13.10UEFA Champions LeagueALens2–0
W09.10Primeira LigaABraga3–1

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

Casa PiaSporting CP

0.6Goals scored per game2.2

1.7Goals conceded per game1.1

20%Both teams scored70%

30%Over 2.5 goals70%

3Clean sheets3

60%Failed to score0%

0-0-4Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)3-1-0

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

Casa PiaSporting CP

Primeira Liga 2026/2027 · 5 gamesPrimeira Liga 2025/2026 · 33 games

0.0Goals scored2.6

2.2Goals conceded0.7

4.0Corners6.8

9.2Shots17.4

46%Possession61%

1.6Yellow cards2.1

20%Clean sheets45%

100%Failed to score0%

0-0-2Home / away record (W-D-L)12-5-0

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Primeira Liga

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
2	Benfica	9	+18	22	WWLWW
3	Sporting CP	9	+10	18	LWDDW
4	Santa Clara	9	+7	18	LWDWW
15	Nacional	9	-8	7	WLLLL
16	Casa Pia	9	-12	7	WLWLD
17	Rio Ave	9	-13	7	LWLDL

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About this match

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP preview

Liga Portugal fixture: Casa Pia welcome Sporting CP on Fri, 30 Oct 2026 (22:15 kick-off).

Form · last 5 matches

Casa PiaWWLWL6 scored · 6 conceded

Sporting CPWLLWW10 scored · 7 conceded

Key facts · last 5

Casa PiaSporting CP

0.6Goals scored per game2.2

1.7Goals conceded per game1.1

20%Both teams scored70%

30%Over 2.5 goals70%

3Clean sheets3

Head-to-head in numbers

0Casa Pia wins

0Draws

9Sporting CP wins

9 meetings · 4.0 goals per game · both teams scored in 56%

What's at stake

Casa Pia16th7 pts · 9 played

Sporting CP3rd18 pts · 9 played

Sporting CP lead by 11 pts

Our pick

Asian handicapSporting CP -1.2570%Confidence1.51Price

+1 more picks in the Prediction tab

Read the full match preview

Bookmakers make Sporting CP the favourite at 1.29 (75% implied), with the draw at 6.20 (16%).

The selection we rate highest is Asian handicap: Sporting CP -1.25: 70% confidence, priced at 1.51.

We also have Both teams to score: No (65%, 1.70).

Casa Pia come into the game with WWLWL in their last 5 (6 scored, 6 conceded), while Sporting CP have WLLWW (10 scored, 7 conceded).

Over 2.5 goals came in 30% of Casa Pia's recent games and 70% of Sporting CP's, with both teams scoring in 20% and 70%.

Per game, Casa Pia average 0.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (clean sheets: 3), Sporting CP 2.2 and 1.1 (clean sheets: 3).

Head-to-head over 9 previous meetings: Casa Pia 0 wins, Sporting CP 9 wins, draws 0.

Those 9 games averaged 4.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% of them.

The last meeting (2026-01-16) ended Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia.

In the table, Casa Pia are 16th (7 pts from 9 games) and Sporting CP are 3rd (18 pts from 9).

Nito explains: Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP mean?

The best prices are 11.00 for a Casa Pia win, 6.20 for a draw and 1.29 for a Sporting CP win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 11.00 returns 110.00 if Casa Pia win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 2.7% removed) that is 9% Casa Pia, 16% draw and 75% Sporting CP.

What does Nito's pick "Asian handicap: Sporting CP -1.25" mean?

Asian handicap: -1.25 goals are added to Sporting CP's final score, and the bet wins if Sporting CP are still ahead after that. A quarter line splits the stake over the two nearest lines. At 1.51, the price implies a 66% chance; Nito's data rates it at 70%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Casa Pia and Sporting CP matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 20% of Casa Pia's last 10 matches and 70% of Sporting CP's last 10. In their 9 recorded meetings it was 56%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Casa Pia reached that in 30% of their last 10 matches, Sporting CP in 70% of their last 10. Their 9 meetings averaged 4.0 goals (78% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WWLWL mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Casa Pia, last 5: 3 W · 0 D · 2 L (6 scored, 6 conceded). Sporting CP, last 5: 3 W · 0 D · 2 L (10 scored, 7 conceded).

Where do Casa Pia and Sporting CP stand in the table?

Casa Pia are 16th with 7 points from 9 games. Sporting CP are 3rd with 18 points from 9 games. The gap between them is 11 points.

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: questions & answers

Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Our pick is Asian handicap: Sporting CP -1.25 with 70% confidence (best price 1.51). Bookmaker odds imply Casa Pia 9%, draw 16%, Sporting CP 75%.

Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Our both-teams-to-score pick is No (65% confidence, 1.70). Both teams scored in 56% of their 9 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 20% of Casa Pia's matches and 70% of Sporting CP's.

What are the odds for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Odds: Casa Pia 11.00, draw 6.20, Sporting CP 1.29. Our pick Asian handicap: Sporting CP -1.25 is available at 1.51.

When is the Casa Pia vs Sporting CP kick-off?

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP kicks off on Fri, 30 Oct 2026 at 22:15 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Sporting CP?

9 meetings: Casa Pia 0 wins, 0 draws, Sporting CP 9 wins. Those 9 games averaged 4.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% of them.

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction & odds

Casa Pia

Sporting CP

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

All our picks for this match

Our picks for this match

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds