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Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners prediction & odds

Melbourne Victory

06:00

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 06:00

Central Coast Mariners

Odds 1X2

1Melbourne Victory1.43Nito’s pickXDraw5.092Central Coast Mariners6.32

AAMI Park

Melbourne VictoryvsCentral Coast Mariners

Nito’s pick1.37

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Match result (1X2)Melbourne Victory

1.37

68%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: A reasonable lean, not a certainty: about 68% by our numbers.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: A-League
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 06:00 EET
Stadium: AAMI Park
Capacity: 30,050
City: Melbourne

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Match result (1X2)Melbourne Victory68%Confidence1.37Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.37 means bookmakers give it 73%; Nito's confidence is 68% (-5 pts)
Melbourne Victory won 1 of their last 5 (goals 6–6); Central Coast Mariners won 1 (goals 4–9)
In the table Melbourne Victory are 8th with 1 pts, Central Coast Mariners 9th with 1 pts
In 50 meetings Melbourne Victory won 23, Central Coast Mariners won 11, 16 were drawn

Nito’s note: A reasonable lean, not a certainty: about 68% by our numbers.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Melbourne Victory65%1.37

Draw20%4.36

Central Coast Mariners15%5.90

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 5.4%

Melbourne Victory1.4366%Draw5.0919%Central Coast Mariners6.3215%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or Draw1.07Melbourne Victory or Central Coast Mariners1.14Draw or Central Coast Mariners2.69

1st-half resultmargin 4.5%

Melbourne Victory1.9250%Draw2.7135%Central Coast Mariners6.4615%

More markets (1)

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Melbourne Victory1.9350%Central Coast Mariners1.9350%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

23Melbourne Victory wins

16Draws

11Central Coast Mariners wins

Last matches: Melbourne Victory

28.10.26AFC CupPersibMelbourne Victory20L
24.10.26A-LeagueMelbourne VictoryMelbourne City11D
18.10.26A-LeagueWellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory21L
14.10.26AFC CupMelbourne VictorySeoul30W
10.10.26FFA CupSouth MelbourneMelbourne Victory11D

Last matches: Central Coast Mariners

25.10.26A-LeagueWellington PhoenixCentral Coast Mariners

Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners: head-to-head record

50 meetings since 2008: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

23Melbourne Victory wins

16Draws

11Central Coast Mariners wins

88:62Goals (Melbourne Victory : Central Coast Mariners)

3.00Goals per match

62%BTTS

84%Over 1.5

58%Over 2.5

34%Over 3.5

Melbourne Victory at home: 16-5-452:29 goals in 25 games
Central Coast Mariners at home: 7-11-733:36 goals in 25 games
Melbourne Victory's biggest win: 4–1Melbourne Victory 4–1 Central Coast Mariners, 21 Mar 2026
Central Coast Mariners's biggest win: 6–2Central Coast Mariners 6–2 Melbourne Victory, 23 Feb 2013

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
21 Mar 2026	A-League	Melbourne Victory	4–1	Central Coast Mariners
1 Feb 2026	A-League

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Melbourne Victory1W 2D 2L · goals 6–6

L28.10AFC CupAPersib0–2
D24.10A-LeagueHMelbourne City1–1
L18.10A-LeagueAWellington Phoenix1–2
W14.10AFC CupHSeoul3–0
D10.10FFA CupASouth Melbourne1–1

Central Coast Mariners1W 2D 2L · goals 4–9

L25.10A-LeagueAWellington Phoenix0–2
D17.10A-LeagueHNewcastle Jets2–2
D22.07FFA CupASydney Utd1–1
L25.04A-LeagueANewcastle Jets

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners

1.5Goals scored per game1.1

0.8Goals conceded per game2.0

50%Both teams scored70%

30%Over 2.5 goals60%

4Clean sheets1

10%Failed to score20%

1-1-0Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)1-1-4

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners

A-League 2025/2026 · 27 gamesA-League 2025/2026 · 26 games

1.6Goals scored1.3

1.3Goals conceded1.6

6.3Corners3.6

17.2Shots10.1

49%Possession43%

1.7Yellow cards1.7

22%Clean sheets23%

33%Failed to score19%

6-4-4Home / away record (W-D-L)5-1-7

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · A-League

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
7	Newcastle Jets	2	0	2	DD
8	Melbourne Victory	2	-1	1	DL
9	Central Coast Mariners	2	-2	1	LD
10	Melbourne City	2	-2	1	DL

Comments

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About this match

Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners preview

A-League fixture: Melbourne Victory welcome Central Coast Mariners on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 (06:00 kick-off).

Form · last 5 matches

Melbourne VictoryLDLWD6 scored · 6 conceded

Central Coast MarinersLDDLW4 scored · 9 conceded

Key facts · last 5

Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners

1.5Goals scored per game1.1

0.8Goals conceded per game2.0

50%Both teams scored70%

30%Over 2.5 goals60%

4Clean sheets1

Head-to-head in numbers

23Melbourne Victory wins

16Draws

11Central Coast Mariners wins

50 meetings · 3.0 goals per game · both teams scored in 62%

What's at stake

Nito explains: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners mean?

The best prices are 1.37 for a Melbourne Victory win, 4.36 for a draw and 5.90 for a Central Coast Mariners win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.37 returns 13.70 if Melbourne Victory win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 12.9% removed) that is 65% Melbourne Victory, 20% draw and 15% Central Coast Mariners.

What does Nito's pick "Melbourne Victory to win" mean?

It wins only if Melbourne Victory win; a draw or a Central Coast Mariners win loses. At 1.37, the price implies a 73% chance; Nito's data rates it at 68%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 50% of Melbourne Victory's last 10 matches and 70% of Central Coast Mariners's last 10. In their 50 recorded meetings it was 62%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Melbourne Victory reached that in 30% of their last 10 matches, Central Coast Mariners in 60% of their last 10. Their 50 meetings averaged 3.0 goals (58% over 2.5).

What does the form guide LDLWD mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Melbourne Victory, last 5: 1 W · 2 D · 2 L (6 scored, 6 conceded). Central Coast Mariners, last 5: 1 W · 2 D · 2 L (4 scored, 9 conceded).

Where do Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners stand in the table?

Melbourne Victory are 8th with 1 points from 2 games. Central Coast Mariners are 9th with 1 points from 2 games. They are level on points.

Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners: questions & answers

Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?

Our pick is Melbourne Victory to win with 68% confidence (best price 1.37). Bookmaker odds imply Melbourne Victory 65%, draw 20%, Central Coast Mariners 15%.

Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?

Both teams scored in 62% of their 50 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 50% of Melbourne Victory's matches and 70% of Central Coast Mariners's.

What are the odds for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?

Odds: Melbourne Victory 1.37, draw 4.36, Central Coast Mariners 5.90. Our pick Melbourne Victory to win is available at 1.37.

When is the Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners kick-off?

Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 06:00 (GMT+2) at AAMI Park.

What is the head-to-head record between Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners?

50 meetings: Melbourne Victory 23 wins, 16 draws, Central Coast Mariners 11 wins. Those 50 games averaged 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 62% of them.

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Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners prediction & odds

Melbourne Victory

Central Coast Mariners

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds