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Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente prediction & odds

Defensa y Justicia

00:00

Kick-off Tue 3 Nov, 00:00

Independiente

Odds 1X2

1Defensa y Justicia2.26XDraw3.252Independiente3.35

Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Defensa y JusticiavsIndependiente

Nito’s pick1.75

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Total goals 2.5Under 2.5

1.75

62%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: Close call. 62% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Primera Division
Kick-off: Tue 3 Nov 00:00 EET
Stadium: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello
Capacity: 20,000
City: Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Total goals 2.5Under 2.562%Confidence1.75Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.75 means bookmakers give it 57%; Nito's confidence is 62% (+5 pts)
3+ goals in 40% of Defensa y Justicia's last 5 and 40% of Independiente's
Goals per game in the last 5: Defensa y Justicia matches 2.2, Independiente matches 2.1
Their 16 meetings average 1.4 goals; both teams scored in 31%

Best price 1.75 means bookmakers give it 57%; Nito's confidence is 62% (+5 pts)

Nito’s note: Close call. 62% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Defensa y Justicia42%2.26

Draw29%3.25

Independiente28%3.35

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 4.9%

Defensa y Justicia2.2642%Draw3.2529%Independiente3.3528%

Double chance

Defensa y Justicia or Draw1.25Defensa y Justicia or Independiente1.26Draw or Independiente1.54

1st-half resultmargin 5.7%

Defensa y Justicia2.9832%Draw2.1045%Independiente4.0723%

More markets (1)

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.7%

Defensa y Justicia1.9649%Independiente1.9051%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

3Defensa y Justicia wins

6Draws

7Independiente wins

Last matches: Defensa y Justicia

24.10.26Primera DivisionTalleres de CórdobaDefensa y Justicia12W
16.10.26Primera DivisionDefensa y JusticiaInstituto01L
10.10.26Primera DivisionUniónDefensa y Justicia02W
03.10.26Primera DivisionDefensa y JusticiaSan Lorenzo30W
18.09.26Primera DivisionCentral Córdoba SdEDefensa y Justicia22D

Last matches: Independiente

25.10.26Primera DivisionIndependiente

Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente: head-to-head record

16 meetings since 2013: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

3Defensa y Justicia wins

6Draws

7Independiente wins

9:13Goals (Defensa y Justicia : Independiente)

1.38Goals per match

31%BTTS

38%Over 1.5

25%Over 2.5

6%Over 3.5

Defensa y Justicia at home: 1-3-33:5 goals in 7 games
Independiente at home: 4-3-28:6 goals in 9 games
Defensa y Justicia's biggest win: 0–2Independiente 0–2 Defensa y Justicia, 20 Feb 2023
Independiente's biggest win: 3–1Independiente 3–1 Defensa y Justicia, 18 Apr 2026

Meetings (16 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
18 Apr 2026	Primera Division	Independiente	3–1	Defensa y Justicia
4 Jun 2024	Primera Division	Defensa y Justicia

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Defensa y Justicia3W 1D 1L · goals 9–4

W24.10Primera DivisionATalleres de Córdoba2–1
L16.10Primera DivisionHInstituto0–1
W10.10Primera DivisionAUnión2–0
W03.10Primera DivisionHSan Lorenzo3–0
D18.09Primera DivisionACentral Córdoba SdE2–2

Independiente1W 2D 2L · goals 4–7

L25.10Primera DivisionHBoca0–1
D18.10Primera DivisionARacing Club1–1
D12.10Primera DivisionATalleres de Córdoba0–0
L02.10Primera DivisionInstituto

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

Defensa y JusticiaIndependiente

1.5Goals scored per game0.9

0.7Goals conceded per game1.2

40%Both teams scored50%

40%Over 2.5 goals40%

4Clean sheets3

20%Failed to score40%

3-0-1Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)3-2-0

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

Defensa y JusticiaIndependiente

Primera División 2026 · 17 gamesPrimera División 2025 · 35 games

1.1Goals scored1.1

1.2Goals conceded0.7

4.3Corners4.6

9.9Shots11.6

50%Possession58%

1.8Yellow cards2.7

35%Clean sheets46%

29%Failed to score37%

2-5-2Home / away record (W-D-L)4-7-6

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Group A

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
3	Boca Juniors	14	+8	27	WWDWW
4	Defensa y Justicia	14	+7	27	WLWWD
5	Lanus	14	+7	24	DWWDW
7	Gimnasia Mendoza	14	+1	20	LLWLD
8	Independiente	14	-2	19	LDDLW
9	San Lorenzo	14	-5	18	DWWLL

Comments

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About this match

Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente preview

Defensa y Justicia host Independiente in the Primera Division on Tue, 3 Nov 2026, with kick-off at 00:00.

Form · last 5 matches

Defensa y JusticiaWLWWD9 scored · 4 conceded

IndependienteLDDLW4 scored · 7 conceded

Key facts · last 5

Defensa y JusticiaIndependiente

1.5Goals scored per game0.9

0.7Goals conceded per game1.2

40%Both teams scored50%

40%Over 2.5 goals40%

4Clean sheets3

Head-to-head in numbers

3Defensa y Justicia wins

6Draws

7Independiente wins

16 meetings · 1.4 goals per game · both teams scored in 31%

What's at stake

Defensa y Justicia4th27 pts · 14 played

Independiente8th19 pts · 14 played

Defensa y Justicia lead by 8 pts

Our pick

Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.562%Confidence1.75Price

Read the full match preview

The game is played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello.

The best available prices are 2.26 on Defensa y Justicia, 3.25 on the draw and 3.35 on Independiente, which is roughly 42%, 29% and 28% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Under 2.5 goals is our top pick for this game (62% confidence, best price 1.75).

Recent form over the last 5: Defensa y Justicia WLWWD (goals 9–4), Independiente LDDLW (goals 4–7).

Both teams scored in 40% of Defensa y Justicia's recent games and 50% of Independiente's; over 2.5 goals landed in 40% and 40% respectively.

Per game, Defensa y Justicia average 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (clean sheets: 4), Independiente 0.9 and 1.2 (clean sheets: 3).

Across 16 head-to-head games the record reads 3–6–7 (wins–draws–losses) from Defensa y Justicia's side.

Those 16 games averaged 1.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 31% of them.

The last meeting (2026-04-18) ended Independiente 3–1 Defensa y Justicia.

Defensa y Justicia sit 4th on 27 pts after 14 games, Independiente 8th on 19 pts.

Nito explains: Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente mean?

The best prices are 2.26 for a Defensa y Justicia win, 3.25 for a draw and 3.35 for a Independiente win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 2.26 returns 22.60 if Defensa y Justicia win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 4.9% removed) that is 42% Defensa y Justicia, 29% draw and 28% Independiente.

What does Nito's pick "Under 2.5 goals" mean?

It wins if the match has fewer than 2.5 goals in total. At 1.75, the price implies a 57% chance; Nito's data rates it at 62%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Defensa y Justicia and Independiente matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 40% of Defensa y Justicia's last 10 matches and 50% of Independiente's last 10. In their 16 recorded meetings it was 31%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Defensa y Justicia reached that in 40% of their last 10 matches, Independiente in 40% of their last 10. Their 16 meetings averaged 1.4 goals (25% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WLWWD mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Defensa y Justicia, last 5: 3 W · 1 D · 1 L (9 scored, 4 conceded). Independiente, last 5: 1 W · 2 D · 2 L (4 scored, 7 conceded).

Where do Defensa y Justicia and Independiente stand in the table?

Defensa y Justicia are 4th with 27 points from 14 games. Independiente are 8th with 19 points from 14 games. The gap between them is 8 points.

Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente: questions & answers

Who will win Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente?

Bookmaker odds imply Defensa y Justicia 42%, draw 29%, Independiente 28%.

Will both teams score in Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente?

Both teams scored in 31% of their 16 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 40% of Defensa y Justicia's matches and 50% of Independiente's.

What are the odds for Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente?

Odds: Defensa y Justicia 2.26, draw 3.25, Independiente 3.35. Our pick Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.75.

When is the Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente kick-off?

Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente kicks off on Tue, 3 Nov 2026 at 00:00 (GMT+2) at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello.

What is the head-to-head record between Defensa y Justicia and Independiente?

16 meetings: Defensa y Justicia 3 wins, 6 draws, Independiente 7 wins. Those 16 games averaged 1.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 31% of them.

Other Primera Division matches on 3 Nov

All Primera Division fixtures

Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente prediction & odds

Defensa y Justicia

Independiente

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds