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Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito prediction & odds

Independiente Valle

20:30

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 20:30

LDU Quito

Odds 1X2

1Independiente Valle1.78Nito’s pickXDraw3.752LDU Quito4.24

Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Independiente VallevsLDU Quito

Nito’s pick1.78

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Match result (1X2)Independiente Valle

1.78

62%Confidence

Nito’s note: Close call. 62% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Liga Pro
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 20:30 EET
Stadium: Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Capacity: 12,600
City: Quito

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Match result (1X2)Independiente Valle62%Confidence1.78Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.78 means bookmakers give it 56%; Nito's confidence is 62% (+6 pts)
Independiente Valle won 3 of their last 5 (goals 7–2); LDU Quito won 2 (goals 8–7)
In the table Independiente Valle are 1st with 74 pts, LDU Quito 5th with 46 pts
In 49 meetings Independiente Valle won 11, LDU Quito won 21, 17 were drawn

Nito’s note: Close call. 62% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

All our picks for this match

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Every market where our confidence is at least 60%

Our picks for this match

Match result (1X2)Independiente Valle

Confidence62%

Indicative price1.78

We rate Independiente Valle to win at 62% — the price of 1.78 implies only 56%.

Both teams to scoreNo

Confidence60%

Indicative price2.03

We rate Both teams to score: No at 60% — the price of 2.03 implies only 49%.

Picks can change until kick-off; the version live at kick-off is the one settled, at a flat 1-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled as two half-stakes. 18+

Today's acca →

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Independiente Valle53%1.78

Draw25%3.75

LDU Quito22%4.24

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 6.4%

Independiente Valle1.7853%Draw3.7525%LDU Quito4.2422%

Double chance

Independiente Valle or Draw1.15Independiente Valle or LDU Quito1.20Draw or LDU Quito1.84

Total goals 2.5margin 5.6%

Over 2.51.8053%Under 2.52.0047%

More markets (3)

Asian handicapmargin 5.4%

Independiente Valle -0.752.0247%LDU Quito +0.751.7953%

1st-half resultmargin 7.4%

Independiente Valle2.3240%Draw2.3340%LDU Quito4.6820%

Odd / even goalsmargin 4.2%

Independiente Valle1.9350%LDU Quito1.9150%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

11Independiente Valle wins

17Draws

21LDU Quito wins

Last matches: Independiente Valle

29.10.26Copa EcuadorDelfinIndependiente Valle03W
23.10.26Liga ProIndependiente ValleU. Catolica00D
17.10.26Liga ProMacaraIndependiente Valle10L
10.10.26Liga ProIndependiente ValleAucas21W
25.09.26Copa EcuadorGualaceoIndependiente Valle02W

Last matches: LDU Quito

30.10.26Copa EcuadorU. CatolicaLDU Quito22D
24.10.26Liga ProLDU QuitoMacara12L
17.10.26Liga ProAucasLDU Quito11D
11.10.26Liga ProLDU QuitoBarcelona SC21W
20.09.26Liga ProLDU QuitoU. Catolica21W

Head-to-head matches

08.08.26Liga ProLDU QuitoIndependiente Valle02W
19.04.26Liga ProIndependiente ValleLDU Quito02L
10.12.25aperturaIndependiente ValleLDU Quito00D
29.11.25aperturaLDU QuitoIndependiente Valle21L
22.06.25aperturaLDU QuitoIndependiente Valle11D
23.02.25aperturaIndependiente ValleLDU Quito11D

2.59Avg goals63%Both scored45%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito: head-to-head record

49 meetings since 2012: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

11Independiente Valle wins

17Draws

21LDU Quito wins

56:71Goals (Independiente Valle : LDU Quito)

2.59Goals per match

63%BTTS

78%Over 1.5

45%Over 2.5

29%Over 3.5

Independiente Valle at home: 8-10-730:30 goals in 25 games
LDU Quito at home: 14-7-341:26 goals in 24 games
Independiente Valle's biggest win: 0–2LDU Quito 0–2 Independiente Valle, 8 Aug 2026
LDU Quito's biggest win: 3–0LDU Quito 3–0 Independiente Valle, 7 Dec 2024

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
8 Aug 2026	Liga Pro	LDU Quito	0–2	Independiente Valle
19 Apr 2026	Liga Pro	Independiente Valle	0–2	LDU Quito
10 Dec 2025	apertura	Independiente Valle	0–0	LDU Quito
29 Nov 2025	apertura	LDU Quito	2–1	Independiente Valle
22 Jun 2025	apertura	LDU Quito	1–1	Independiente Valle
23 Feb 2025	apertura	Independiente Valle	1–1	LDU Quito
14 Dec 2024	apertura	Independiente Valle	1–0	LDU Quito
7 Dec 2024	apertura	LDU Quito	3–0	Independiente Valle
9 Nov 2024	apertura	LDU Quito	2–1	Independiente Valle
18 May 2024	apertura	Independiente Valle	1–1	LDU Quito
17 Dec 2023	apertura	LDU Quito	1–1	Independiente Valle
10 Dec 2023	apertura	Independiente Valle	0–0	LDU Quito
4 Nov 2023	apertura	LDU Quito	2–0	Independiente Valle
28 May 2023	apertura	Independiente Valle	2–3	LDU Quito
17 Sept 2022	apertura	LDU Quito	2–2	Independiente Valle
2 May 2022	apertura	Independiente Valle	1–0	LDU Quito
24 Oct 2021	apertura	LDU Quito	0–2	Independiente Valle
8 May 2021	apertura	Independiente Valle	3–1	LDU Quito
18 Oct 2020	apertura	Independiente Valle	3–2	LDU Quito
22 Feb 2020	apertura	LDU Quito	2–3	Independiente Valle

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Independiente Valle3W 1D 1L · goals 7–2

W29.10Copa EcuadorADelfin3–0
D23.10Liga ProHU. Catolica0–0
L17.10Liga ProAMacara0–1
W10.10Liga ProHAucas2–1
W25.09Copa EcuadorAGualaceo2–0

LDU Quito2W 2D 1L · goals 8–7

D30.10Copa EcuadorAU. Catolica2–2
L24.10Liga ProHMacara1–2
D17.10Liga ProAAucas1–1
W11.10Liga ProHBarcelona SC2–1
W20.09Liga ProHU. Catolica2–1

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

Independiente ValleLDU Quito

1.5Goals scored per game1.5

1.0Goals conceded per game1.3

50%Both teams scored80%

50%Over 2.5 goals60%

3Clean sheets1

30%Failed to score20%

2-1-1Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)1-2-1

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

Independiente ValleLDU Quito

Primera A 2025 · 33 gamesPrimera A 2025 · 31 games

1.7Goals scored1.8

0.8Goals conceded0.9

5.9Corners5.4

14.7Shots14.8

57%Possession56%

1.9Yellow cards2.1

36%Clean sheets35%

18%Failed to score16%

7-9-1Home / away record (W-D-L)5-5-6

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Liga Pro: Regular season

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
1	Ind. del Valle	30	+40	74	WWLDW
2	U. Catolica	30	+24	51	WWDDW
4	Aucas	30	+5	50	DDDWW
5	LDU Quito	30	+7	46	DWDLW
6	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44	DDWLW

About this match

Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito preview

Independiente Valle host LDU Quito in the Liga Pro on Sun, 1 Nov 2026, with kick-off at 20:30.

Form · last 5 matches

Independiente ValleWDLWW7 scored · 2 conceded

LDU QuitoDLDWW8 scored · 7 conceded

Key facts · last 5

Independiente ValleLDU Quito

1.5Goals scored per game1.5

1.0Goals conceded per game1.3

50%Both teams scored80%

50%Over 2.5 goals60%

3Clean sheets1

Head-to-head in numbers

11Independiente Valle wins

17Draws

21LDU Quito wins

49 meetings · 2.6 goals per game · both teams scored in 63%

What's at stake

Independiente Valle1st74 pts · 30 played

LDU Quito5th46 pts · 30 played

Independiente Valle lead by 28 pts

Our pick

Independiente Valle to winIndependiente Valle62%Confidence1.78Price

+1 more picks in the Prediction tab

Read the full match preview

The game is played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.

The best available prices are 1.78 on Independiente Valle, 3.75 on the draw and 4.24 on LDU Quito, which is roughly 53%, 25% and 22% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Independiente Valle to win is our top pick for this game (62% confidence, best price 1.78).

We also have Both teams to score: No (60%, 2.03).

Recent form over the last 5: Independiente Valle WDLWW (goals 7–2), LDU Quito DLDWW (goals 8–7).

Both teams scored in 50% of Independiente Valle's recent games and 80% of LDU Quito's; over 2.5 goals landed in 50% and 60% respectively.

Per game, Independiente Valle average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (clean sheets: 3), LDU Quito 1.5 and 1.3 (clean sheets: 1).

Across 49 head-to-head games the record reads 11–17–21 (wins–draws–losses) from Independiente Valle's side.

Those 49 games averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 63% of them.

The last meeting (2026-08-08) ended LDU Quito 0–2 Independiente Valle.

Independiente Valle sit 1st on 74 pts after 30 games, LDU Quito 5th on 46 pts.

Nito explains: Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito mean?

The best prices are 1.78 for a Independiente Valle win, 3.75 for a draw and 4.24 for a LDU Quito win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.78 returns 17.80 if Independiente Valle win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 6.4% removed) that is 53% Independiente Valle, 25% draw and 22% LDU Quito.

What does Nito's pick "Independiente Valle to win" mean?

It wins only if Independiente Valle win; a draw or a LDU Quito win loses. At 1.78, the price implies a 56% chance; Nito's data rates it at 62%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Independiente Valle and LDU Quito matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 50% of Independiente Valle's last 10 matches and 80% of LDU Quito's last 10. In their 49 recorded meetings it was 63%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Independiente Valle reached that in 50% of their last 10 matches, LDU Quito in 60% of their last 10. Their 49 meetings averaged 2.6 goals (45% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WDLWW mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Independiente Valle, last 5: 3 W · 1 D · 1 L (7 scored, 2 conceded). LDU Quito, last 5: 2 W · 2 D · 1 L (8 scored, 7 conceded).

Where do Independiente Valle and LDU Quito stand in the table?

Independiente Valle are 1st with 74 points from 30 games. LDU Quito are 5th with 46 points from 30 games. The gap between them is 28 points.

Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito: questions & answers

Who will win Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito?

Our pick is Independiente Valle to win with 62% confidence (best price 1.78). Bookmaker odds imply Independiente Valle 53%, draw 25%, LDU Quito 22%.

Will both teams score in Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito?

Our both-teams-to-score pick is No (60% confidence, 2.03). Both teams scored in 63% of their 49 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 50% of Independiente Valle's matches and 80% of LDU Quito's.

What are the odds for Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito?

Odds: Independiente Valle 1.78, draw 3.75, LDU Quito 4.24. Our pick Independiente Valle to win is available at 1.78.

When is the Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito kick-off?

Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 20:30 (GMT+2) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.

What is the head-to-head record between Independiente Valle and LDU Quito?

49 meetings: Independiente Valle 11 wins, 17 draws, LDU Quito 21 wins. Those 49 games averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 63% of them.

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Independiente Valle vs LDU Quito prediction & odds

Independiente Valle

LDU Quito

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

All our picks for this match

Our picks for this match

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds