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Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo prediction & odds

Velez Sarsfield

00:15

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 00:15

San Lorenzo

Odds 1X2

1Velez Sarsfield2.02XDraw3.392San Lorenzo4.42

Velez SarsfieldvsSan Lorenzo

Nito’s pick1.73

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Both teams to scoreNo

1.73

65%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: A reasonable lean, not a certainty: about 65% by our numbers.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Liga Profesional - Clausura
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 00:15 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Both teams to scoreNo65%Confidence1.73Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.73 means bookmakers give it 58%; Nito's confidence is 65% (+7 pts)
Both teams scored in 50% of Velez Sarsfield's last 5 and 20% of San Lorenzo's
Goals per game in the last 5: Velez Sarsfield matches 2.6, San Lorenzo matches 1.4
Their 45 meetings average 2.0 goals; both teams scored in 38%

Nito’s note: A reasonable lean, not a certainty: about 65% by our numbers.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Velez Sarsfield49%1.96

Draw29%3.39

San Lorenzo22%4.42

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 1.6%

Velez Sarsfield2.0249%Draw3.3929%San Lorenzo4.4222%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or Draw1.13Velez Sarsfield or San Lorenzo1.23Draw or San Lorenzo1.84

Total goals 2.5margin 3.4%

Over 2.52.4040%Under 2.51.6260%

More markets (3)

Asian handicapmargin 2.7%

Velez Sarsfield -0.52.0248%San Lorenzo +0.51.8852%

1st-half resultmargin 17.1%

Velez Sarsfield2.4535%Draw1.8845%San Lorenzo4.3320%

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.7%

Velez Sarsfield1.9649%San Lorenzo1.9051%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

16Velez Sarsfield wins

13Draws

16San Lorenzo wins

Last matches: Velez Sarsfield

26.10.26Primera DivisionCentral Córdoba SdEVelez Sarsfield05W
17.10.26Primera DivisionVelez SarsfieldGimnasia Mendoza10W
12.10.26Primera DivisionLanúsVelez Sarsfield20L
05.10.26Primera DivisionVelez SarsfieldPlatense22D
21.09.26Primera DivisionVelez SarsfieldTigre32W

Last matches: San Lorenzo

24.10.26Primera DivisionSan LorenzoNewell's Old Boys

Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo: head-to-head record

45 meetings since 1999: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

16Velez Sarsfield wins

13Draws

16San Lorenzo wins

47:45Goals (Velez Sarsfield : San Lorenzo)

2.04Goals per match

38%BTTS

58%Over 1.5

33%Over 2.5

18%Over 3.5

Velez Sarsfield at home: 9-9-424:17 goals in 22 games
San Lorenzo at home: 12-4-728:23 goals in 23 games
Velez Sarsfield's biggest win: 1–3San Lorenzo 1–3 Velez Sarsfield, 7 Aug 2024
San Lorenzo's biggest win: 4–1San Lorenzo 4–1 Velez Sarsfield, 5 Dec 2003

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
20 Apr 2026	Primera Division	San Lorenzo	0–0	Velez Sarsfield
7 Aug 2025	Primera Division	San Lorenzo	1–0

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Velez Sarsfield3W 1D 1L · goals 11–6

W26.10Primera DivisionACentral Córdoba SdE5–0
W17.10Primera DivisionHGimnasia Mendoza1–0
L12.10Primera DivisionALanús0–2
D05.10Primera DivisionHPlatense2–2
W21.09Primera DivisionHTigre3–2

San Lorenzo2W 1D 2L · goals 3–6

D24.10Primera DivisionHNewell's Old Boys0–0
W18.10Primera DivisionAEstudiantes2–1
W11.10Primera DivisionHDep. Riestra1–0
L03.10Primera DivisionDefensa y Justicia

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

Velez SarsfieldSan Lorenzo

1.6Goals scored per game0.6

1.0Goals conceded per game0.8

50%Both teams scored20%

40%Over 2.5 goals20%

4Clean sheets5

20%Failed to score50%

3-2-0Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)1-2-2

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

Velez SarsfieldSan Lorenzo

Primera División 2026 · 16 gamesPrimera División 2025 · 36 games

1.0Goals scored0.9

0.6Goals conceded0.7

4.7Corners4.3

12.6Shots10.4

55%Possession47%

2.3Yellow cards3.0

44%Clean sheets47%

25%Failed to score36%

4-3-2Home / away record (W-D-L)6-7-5

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Group A

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
1	Instituto	14	+11	32	WWDWW
2	Velez Sarsfield	14	+10	27	WWLDW
3	Boca Juniors	14	+8	27	WWDWW
8	Independiente	14	-2	19	LDDLW
9	San Lorenzo	14	-5	18	DWWLL
10	Union de Santa Fe	14

Comments

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About this match

Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo preview

Velez Sarsfield host San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional - Clausura on Sun, 1 Nov 2026, with kick-off at 00:15.

Form · last 5 matches

Velez SarsfieldWWLDW11 scored · 6 conceded

San LorenzoDWWLL3 scored · 6 conceded

Key facts · last 5

Velez SarsfieldSan Lorenzo

1.6Goals scored per game0.6

1.0Goals conceded per game0.8

50%Both teams scored20%

40%Over 2.5 goals20%

4Clean sheets5

Head-to-head in numbers

16Velez Sarsfield wins

13Draws

16San Lorenzo wins

45 meetings · 2.0 goals per game · both teams scored in 38%

What's at stake

Velez Sarsfield2nd27 pts · 14 played

Nito explains: Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo mean?

The best prices are 1.96 for a Velez Sarsfield win, 3.39 for a draw and 4.42 for a San Lorenzo win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.96 returns 19.60 if Velez Sarsfield win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 3.1% removed) that is 49% Velez Sarsfield, 29% draw and 22% San Lorenzo.

What does Nito's pick "Both teams to score: No" mean?

It wins if at least one team fails to score. At 1.73, the price implies a 58% chance; Nito's data rates it at 65%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 50% of Velez Sarsfield's last 10 matches and 20% of San Lorenzo's last 10. In their 45 recorded meetings it was 38%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Velez Sarsfield reached that in 40% of their last 10 matches, San Lorenzo in 20% of their last 10. Their 45 meetings averaged 2.0 goals (33% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WWLDW mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Velez Sarsfield, last 5: 3 W · 1 D · 1 L (11 scored, 6 conceded). San Lorenzo, last 5: 2 W · 1 D · 2 L (3 scored, 6 conceded).

Where do Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo stand in the table?

Velez Sarsfield are 2nd with 27 points from 14 games. San Lorenzo are 9th with 18 points from 14 games. The gap between them is 9 points.

Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo: questions & answers

Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?

Bookmaker odds imply Velez Sarsfield 49%, draw 29%, San Lorenzo 22%.

Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?

Our both-teams-to-score pick is No (65% confidence, 1.73). Both teams scored in 38% of their 45 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 50% of Velez Sarsfield's matches and 20% of San Lorenzo's.

What are the odds for Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?

Odds: Velez Sarsfield 1.96, draw 3.39, San Lorenzo 4.42. Our pick Both teams to score: No is available at 1.73.

When is the Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo kick-off?

Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 00:15 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo?

45 meetings: Velez Sarsfield 16 wins, 13 draws, San Lorenzo 16 wins. Those 45 games averaged 2.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 38% of them.

Other Liga Profesional - Clausura matches on 1 Nov

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Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo prediction & odds

Velez Sarsfield

San Lorenzo

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds