Liverpool vs Arsenal preview: Premier League, Sunday 1 November
Second-placed Arsenal visit fourth-placed Liverpool on Sunday. The prices lean slightly towards the visitors, and our model looks at a tighter game than the head-to-head history suggests.
Liverpool welcome 
Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 16:30 GMT. The prices give the visitors a slight edge, but this has the feel of a finely balanced contest between two sides in good form. Our model's interest lies less in who wins and more in whether both teams find the net.
What's at stake
After 8 games, Arsenal sit 2nd on 21 points, level with leaders Manchester City, who hold top spot on goal difference (11 against Arsenal's 8). Liverpool are 4th on 15 points, just behind Brighton on 16.
For Arsenal, a result here would keep them right in the mix at the summit. For Liverpool, it's a chance to show they belong in that conversation too. You can follow the full standings on our Premier League page.
Recent form
Liverpool's sequence reads D W W W W. The most recent outing was a 1-1 draw with Chelsea in the EFL Cup on 28 October, preceded by a 2-0 Premier League win over Brighton. Their European games have been wild: 4-3 against Villarreal and 6-3 away at LASK. Across their last 10 matches they average 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, with both teams scoring in 60% and over 2.5 goals in 60%. They've kept 3 clean sheets in that span.
Arsenal's sequence is D D W D W. They drew 2-2 away at Real Madrid in the International Champions Cup and 1-1 at Fleetwood in the EFL Cup, while their two Premier League games were clean-sheet wins: 2-0 against Everton and 1-0 at Nottingham. Over 10 matches they average 1.9 scored and 1.1 conceded, with both teams scoring in 50%, over 2.5 goals in 60%, and 4 clean sheets.
Head-to-head and absences
This fixture has a long history: 49 meetings, with 16 Liverpool wins, 22 draws and 11 Arsenal wins. The long-run numbers point to goals, with an average of 3.35 per game, both teams scoring in 69% and over 2.5 in 57%.
The recent meetings tell a tighter story, though:
- 8 January 2026: Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 31 August 2025: Liverpool 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 11 May 2025: Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 27 October 2024: Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
Both squads have absentees. Liverpool are without C. Bradley, H. Ekitike, J. Frimpong, G. Leoni and A. Nallo, with V. Munoz and D. Szoboszlai doubtful. Arsenal are missing M. Dowman, B. Saka and W. Saliba, while R. Calafiori, N. Madueke and C. Tzolis are doubts.
What the prices say
The best 1X2 prices are 2.94 for a Liverpool win, 3.45 for the draw and 2.48 for Arsenal. That translates to implied chances of roughly 33% home, 28% draw and 39% away. In plain terms: Arsenal are slight favourites, but nobody should treat this as anything other than close to a coin flip with a small tilt.
Our pick
Our model leans towards Both teams to score: No at a best price of 2.1, which implies about 48%.
The reasoning: Arsenal have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10, including both recent league games, and the two most recent meetings between these sides both finished without one team scoring. The honest counterpoint is that Liverpool have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games lately, and the long-run head-to-head figure of 69% for both teams scoring sits firmly against us. So this is a modest lean, not a strong conviction.
For line-ups and live stats, head to the match page. You can see how our model's calls have fared on our track record, and browse the rest of the weekend on today's tips.
For information only — not betting advice. Prices are the best available at publication. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Sources
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