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Moreirense vs Estrela prediction & odds

Moreirense

17:30

Kick-off Sat 31 Oct, 17:30

Estrela

Odds 1X2

1Moreirense2.89XDraw3.402Estrela2.55

MoreirensevsEstrela

Nito’s pick2.06

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Asian handicap 0Moreirense 0

2.06

62%Confidence

Nito’s note: Close call. 62% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Liga Portugal
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct 17:30 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Asian handicap 0Moreirense 062%Confidence2.06Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 2.06 means bookmakers give it 49%; Nito's confidence is 62% (+13 pts)
Moreirense won 2 of their last 5 (goals 7–5); Estrela won 1 (goals 5–9)
In the table Moreirense are 10th with 11 pts, Estrela 12th with 10 pts
In 2 meetings Moreirense won 1, Estrela won 0, 1 were drawn

Nito’s note: Close call. 62% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Moreirense34%2.89

Draw28%3.40

Estrela38%2.55

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 3.2%

Moreirense2.8934%Draw3.4028%Estrela2.5538%

Double chance

Moreirense or Draw1.47Moreirense or Estrela1.28Draw or Estrela1.38

Total goals 2.5margin 4.1%

Over 2.52.0048%Under 2.51.8552%

More markets (3)

Asian handicapmargin 3.5%

Moreirense 02.0647%Estrela 01.8253%

1st-half resultmargin 5.6%

Moreirense3.4927%Draw2.2143%Estrela3.1530%

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.7%

Moreirense1.9649%Estrela1.9051%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

1Moreirense wins

1Draws

0Estrela wins

Last matches: Moreirense

25.10.26Primeira LigaEstorilMoreirense13W
17.10.26Taça de PortugalAFSMoreirense10L
09.10.26Primeira LigaMoreirenseGil Vicente01L
20.09.26Primeira LigaVitoria GuimaraesMoreirense11D
14.09.26Primeira LigaMoreirenseMaritimo31W

Last matches: Estrela

24.10.26Primeira LigaEstrelaCasa Pia02L

Moreirense vs Estrela: head-to-head record

2 meetings since 2025: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

1Moreirense wins

1Draws

0Estrela wins

3:2Goals (Moreirense : Estrela)

2.50Goals per match

50%BTTS

50%Over 1.5

50%Over 2.5

50%Over 3.5

Moreirense at home: 1-0-03:2 goals in 1 games
Estrela at home: 0-1-00:0 goals in 1 games
Moreirense's biggest win: 3–2Moreirense 3–2 Estrela, 2 May 2026

Meetings (2 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
2 May 2026	Primeira Liga	Moreirense	3–2	Estrela
20 Dec 2025	Primeira Liga	Estrela	0–0	Moreirense

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Moreirense2W 1D 2L · goals 7–5

W25.10Primeira LigaAEstoril3–1
L17.10Taça de PortugalAAFS0–1
L09.10Primeira LigaHGil Vicente0–1
D20.09Primeira LigaAVitoria Guimaraes1–1
W14.09Primeira LigaHMaritimo3–1

Estrela1W 1D 3L · goals 5–9

L24.10Primeira LigaHCasa Pia0–2
W17.10Taça de PortugalAFazendense2–1
L11.10Primeira LigaAArouca0–1
L20.09Primeira LigaHAcademico Viseu

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

MoreirenseEstrela

1.1Goals scored per game1.6

1.7Goals conceded per game1.8

50%Both teams scored70%

60%Over 2.5 goals70%

1Clean sheets0

40%Failed to score30%

1-1-2Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)2-2-1

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

MoreirenseEstrela

Primeira Liga 2025/2026 · 34 gamesPrimeira Liga 2026/2027 · 7 games

1.1Goals scored2.0

1.4Goals conceded2.0

3.6Corners4.0

8.9Shots13.0

49%Possession49%

2.5Yellow cards2.4

26%Clean sheets0%

32%Failed to score14%

8-3-6Home / away record (W-D-L)1-2-0

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Primeira Liga

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
9	Braga	9	-2	11	LLLDW
10	Moreirense	9	-5	11	WLDWL
11	Famalicao	9	+3	10	WLWDD
12	Estrela	9	-3	10	LLLDW
13	Vitoria Guimaraes	9	0	8	WLDLD

About this match

Moreirense vs Estrela preview

On Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 17:30, Moreirense take on Estrela in the Liga Portugal.

Form · last 5 matches

MoreirenseWLLDW7 scored · 5 conceded

EstrelaLWLLD5 scored · 9 conceded

Key facts · last 5

MoreirenseEstrela

1.1Goals scored per game1.6

1.7Goals conceded per game1.8

50%Both teams scored70%

60%Over 2.5 goals70%

1Clean sheets0

Head-to-head in numbers

1Moreirense wins

1Draws

0Estrela wins

2 meetings · 2.5 goals per game · both teams scored in 50%

What's at stake

Moreirense10th11 pts · 9 played

Nito explains: Moreirense vs Estrela

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Moreirense vs Estrela mean?

The best prices are 2.89 for a Moreirense win, 3.40 for a draw and 2.55 for a Estrela win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 2.89 returns 28.90 if Moreirense win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 3.2% removed) that is 34% Moreirense, 28% draw and 38% Estrela.

What does Nito's pick "Asian handicap: Moreirense 0" mean?

Asian handicap: 0 goals are added to Moreirense's final score, and the bet wins if Moreirense are still ahead after that. If it is level after the handicap, the stake is returned. At 2.06, the price implies a 49% chance; Nito's data rates it at 62%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Moreirense and Estrela matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 50% of Moreirense's last 10 matches and 70% of Estrela's last 10. In their 2 recorded meetings it was 50%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Moreirense reached that in 60% of their last 10 matches, Estrela in 70% of their last 10. Their 2 meetings averaged 2.5 goals (50% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WLLDW mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Moreirense, last 5: 2 W · 1 D · 2 L (7 scored, 5 conceded). Estrela, last 5: 1 W · 1 D · 3 L (5 scored, 9 conceded).

Where do Moreirense and Estrela stand in the table?

Moreirense are 10th with 11 points from 9 games. Estrela are 12th with 10 points from 9 games. The gap between them is 1 points.

Moreirense vs Estrela: questions & answers

Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?

Our pick is Asian handicap: Moreirense 0 with 62% confidence (best price 2.06). Bookmaker odds imply Moreirense 34%, draw 28%, Estrela 38%.

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Estrela?

Both teams scored in 50% of their 2 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 50% of Moreirense's matches and 70% of Estrela's.

What are the odds for Moreirense vs Estrela?

Odds: Moreirense 2.89, draw 3.40, Estrela 2.55. Our pick Asian handicap: Moreirense 0 is available at 2.06.

When is the Moreirense vs Estrela kick-off?

Moreirense vs Estrela kicks off on Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 17:30 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Estrela?

2 meetings: Moreirense 1 wins, 1 draws, Estrela 0 wins. Those 2 games averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

Other Liga Portugal matches on 31 Oct

22:30FC PortoEstoril

All Liga Portugal fixtures

Moreirense vs Estrela prediction & odds

Moreirense

Estrela

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds