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Machida vs Gamba prediction & odds

Machida

09:00

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 09:00

Gamba

Odds 1X2

1Machida1.81Nito’s pickXDraw3.802Gamba4.46

Machida Gion Stadium

MachidavsGamba

Nito’s pick1.76

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Match result (1X2)Machida

1.76

63%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: Close call. 63% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: J-League
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 09:00 EET
Stadium: Machida Gion Stadium
Capacity: 15,489
City: Tokyo

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Match result (1X2)Machida63%Confidence1.76Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.76 means bookmakers give it 57%; Nito's confidence is 63% (+6 pts)
Machida won 4 of their last 5 (goals 10–0); Gamba won 2 (goals 10–7)
In the table Machida are 1st with 27 pts, Gamba 15th with 11 pts
In 6 meetings Machida won 3, Gamba won 2, 1 were drawn

Nito’s note: Close call. 63% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

All our picks for this match

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Every market where our confidence is at least 60%

Our picks for this match

Match result (1X2)Machida

Confidence63%

Indicative price1.76

We rate Machida to win at 63% — the price of 1.76 implies only 57%.

Asian handicap -0.75Machida -0.75

Confidence60%

Indicative price1.98

Asian handicap: Machida -0.75: our confidence is 60%, 9 points above the 51% the best price of 1.98 implies.

Picks can change until kick-off; the version live at kick-off is the one settled, at a flat 1-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled as two half-stakes. 18+

Today's acca →

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Machida50%1.76

Draw27%3.31

Gamba23%3.90

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 4.0%

Machida1.8153%Draw3.8025%Gamba4.4622%

Double chance

Machida or Draw1.14Machida or Gamba1.21Draw or Gamba2.07

1st-half resultmargin 5.9%

Machida2.3341%Draw2.3440%Gamba4.9519%

More markets (1)

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Machida1.9450%Gamba1.9250%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

3Machida wins

1Draws

2Gamba wins

Last matches: Machida

29.10.26AFC CupShanghai ShenhuaMachida01W
24.10.26J-LeagueVissel KobeMachida00D
21.10.26J-LeagueShimizuMachida05W
18.10.26J-LeagueMachidaAvispa30W
15.10.26AFC CupTampinesMachida01W

Last matches: Gamba

28.10.26AFC Champions LeagueGambaBuriram11D
24.10.26J-LeagueGambaKyoto22D
21.10.26J-LeagueAvispaGamba12W
17.10.26J-LeagueShimizuGamba22D
13.10.26AFC Champions LeagueNewcastle JetsGamba13W

Head-to-head matches

15.01.26Club FriendliesGambaMachida32L
20.08.25J-LeagueMachidaGamba31W
02.04.25J-LeagueGambaMachida01W
30.06.24J-LeagueGambaMachida13W
24.02.24J-LeagueMachidaGamba11D
15.12.12CupGambaMachida32L

3.50Avg goals83%Both scored67%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Machida vs Gamba: head-to-head record

6 meetings since 2012: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

3Machida wins

1Draws

2Gamba wins

12:9Goals (Machida : Gamba)

3.50Goals per match

83%BTTS

83%Over 1.5

67%Over 2.5

67%Over 3.5

Machida at home: 1-1-04:2 goals in 2 games
Gamba at home: 2-0-27:8 goals in 4 games
Machida's biggest win: 3–1Machida 3–1 Gamba, 20 Aug 2025
Gamba's biggest win: 3–2Gamba 3–2 Machida, 15 Jan 2026

Meetings (6 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
15 Jan 2026	Club Friendlies	Gamba	3–2	Machida
20 Aug 2025	J-League	Machida	3–1	Gamba
2 Apr 2025	J-League	Gamba	0–1	Machida
30 Jun 2024	J-League	Gamba	1–3	Machida
24 Feb 2024	J-League	Machida	1–1	Gamba
15 Dec 2012	Cup	Gamba	3–2	Machida

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Machida4W 1D 0L · goals 10–0

W29.10AFC CupAShanghai Shenhua1–0
D24.10J-LeagueAVissel Kobe0–0
W21.10J-LeagueAShimizu5–0
W18.10J-LeagueHAvispa3–0
W15.10AFC CupATampines1–0

Gamba2W 3D 0L · goals 10–7

D28.10AFC Champions LeagueHBuriram1–1
D24.10J-LeagueHKyoto2–2
W21.10J-LeagueAAvispa2–1
D17.10J-LeagueAShimizu2–2
W13.10AFC Champions LeagueANewcastle Jets3–1

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

MachidaGamba

1.7Goals scored per game2.3

0.5Goals conceded per game1.6

20%Both teams scored70%

40%Over 2.5 goals70%

8Clean sheets1

20%Failed to score20%

3-1-1Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)2-1-2

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

MachidaGamba

J1 League 2026 · 19 gamesJ1 League 2025 · 37 games

1.7Goals scored1.4

1.2Goals conceded1.4

4.3Corners5.0

12.5Shots13.5

44%Possession52%

1.3Yellow cards1.0

37%Clean sheets30%

5%Failed to score35%

8-0-1Home / away record (W-D-L)5-5-8

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · J-League

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
1	Machida	12	+20	27	DWWWL
2	FC Tokyo	12	+19	27	WDWWW
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	12	-4	12	LWLDD
15	Gamba Osaka	12	-7	11	DWDLL
16	Kyoto	12	-8	10	DDLLW

Comments

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About this match

Machida vs Gamba preview

Machida host Gamba in the J-League on Sun, 1 Nov 2026, with kick-off at 09:00.

Form · last 5 matches

MachidaWDWWW10 scored · 0 conceded

GambaDDWDW10 scored · 7 conceded

Key facts · last 5

MachidaGamba

1.7Goals scored per game2.3

0.5Goals conceded per game1.6

20%Both teams scored70%

40%Over 2.5 goals70%

8Clean sheets1

Head-to-head in numbers

3Machida wins

1Draws

2Gamba wins

6 meetings · 3.5 goals per game · both teams scored in 83%

What's at stake

Machida1st27 pts · 12 played

Gamba15th11 pts · 12 played

Machida lead by 16 pts

Our pick

Machida to winMachida63%Confidence1.76Price

+1 more picks in the Prediction tab

Read the full match preview

The game is played at Machida Gion Stadium.

The best available prices are 1.76 on Machida, 3.31 on the draw and 3.90 on Gamba, which is roughly 50%, 27% and 23% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

The selection we rate highest is Machida to win: 63% confidence, priced at 1.76.

We also have Asian handicap: Machida -0.75 (60%, 1.98).

Recent form over the last 5: Machida WDWWW (goals 10–0), Gamba DDWDW (goals 10–7).

Both teams scored in 20% of Machida's recent games and 70% of Gamba's; over 2.5 goals landed in 40% and 70% respectively.

Per game, Machida average 1.7 goals scored and 0.5 conceded (clean sheets: 8), Gamba 2.3 and 1.6 (clean sheets: 1).

Across 6 head-to-head games the record reads 3–1–2 (wins–draws–losses) from Machida's side.

Those 6 games averaged 3.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 83% of them.

The last meeting (2026-01-15) ended Gamba 3–2 Machida.

Machida sit 1st on 27 pts after 12 games, Gamba 15th on 11 pts.

Nito explains: Machida vs Gamba

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Machida vs Gamba mean?

The best prices are 1.76 for a Machida win, 3.31 for a draw and 3.90 for a Gamba win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.76 returns 17.60 if Machida win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 12.7% removed) that is 50% Machida, 27% draw and 23% Gamba.

What does Nito's pick "Machida to win" mean?

It wins only if Machida win; a draw or a Gamba win loses. At 1.76, the price implies a 57% chance; Nito's data rates it at 63%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Machida and Gamba matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 20% of Machida's last 10 matches and 70% of Gamba's last 10. In their 6 recorded meetings it was 83%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Machida reached that in 40% of their last 10 matches, Gamba in 70% of their last 10. Their 6 meetings averaged 3.5 goals (67% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WDWWW mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Machida, last 5: 4 W · 1 D · 0 L (10 scored, 0 conceded). Gamba, last 5: 2 W · 3 D · 0 L (10 scored, 7 conceded).

Where do Machida and Gamba stand in the table?

Machida are 1st with 27 points from 12 games. Gamba are 15th with 11 points from 12 games. The gap between them is 16 points.

Machida vs Gamba: questions & answers

Who will win Machida vs Gamba?

Our pick is Machida to win with 63% confidence (best price 1.76). Bookmaker odds imply Machida 50%, draw 27%, Gamba 23%.

Will both teams score in Machida vs Gamba?

Both teams scored in 83% of their 6 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 20% of Machida's matches and 70% of Gamba's.

What are the odds for Machida vs Gamba?

Odds: Machida 1.76, draw 3.31, Gamba 3.90. Our pick Machida to win is available at 1.76.

When is the Machida vs Gamba kick-off?

Machida vs Gamba kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 09:00 (GMT+2) at Machida Gion Stadium.

What is the head-to-head record between Machida and Gamba?

6 meetings: Machida 3 wins, 1 draws, Gamba 2 wins. Those 6 games averaged 3.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 83% of them.

Other J-League matches on 1 Nov

All J-League fixtures

Machida vs Gamba prediction & odds

Machida

Gamba

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

All our picks for this match

Our picks for this match

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds