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San Lorenzo vs Libertad prediction & odds

San Lorenzo

00:30

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 00:30

Libertad

Odds 1X2

1San Lorenzo6.60XDraw4.342Libertad1.50Nito’s pick

Estadio Gunther Vogel

San LorenzovsLibertad

Nito’s pick1.50

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Match result (1X2)Libertad

1.50

78%Confidence

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Nito’s note: The numbers lean clearly one way here. Still football, though: 78% is not 100%.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Primera Division
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 00:30 EET
Stadium: Estadio Gunther Vogel
Capacity: 8,000
City: San Lorenzo

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Match result (1X2)Libertad78%Confidence1.50Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.50 means bookmakers give it 67%; Nito's confidence is 78% (+11 pts)
Libertad won 3 of their last 5 (goals 8–5); San Lorenzo won 0 (goals 7–10)
In the table Libertad are 5th with 61 pts, San Lorenzo 12th with 19 pts
In 14 meetings Libertad won 12, San Lorenzo won 0, 2 were drawn

Nito’s note: The numbers lean clearly one way here. Still football, though: 78% is not 100%.

All our picks for this match

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Every market where our confidence is at least 60%

Our picks for this match

Match result (1X2)LibertadHigh confidence

Confidence78%

Indicative price1.50

Libertad to win: our confidence is 78%, 11 points above the 67% the best price of 1.50 implies.

Both teams to scoreNoHigh confidence

Confidence65%

Indicative price1.91

Both teams to score: No: our confidence is 65%, 13 points above the 52% the best price of 1.91 implies.

Total goals 2.5Over 2.5High confidence

Confidence65%

Indicative price1.83

Over 2.5 goals: our confidence is 65%, 10 points above the 55% the best price of 1.83 implies.

Asian handicap +0.5Libertad -0.5High confidence

Confidence75%

Indicative price1.49

We rate Asian handicap: Libertad -0.5 at 75% — the price of 1.49 implies only 67%.

Picks can change until kick-off; the version live at kick-off is the one settled, at a flat 1-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled as two half-stakes. 18+

Today's acca →

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

San Lorenzo14%6.60

Draw22%4.34

Libertad64%1.50

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 4.9%

San Lorenzo6.6014%Draw4.3422%Libertad1.5064%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or Draw2.43San Lorenzo or Libertad1.14Draw or Libertad1.05

Total goals 2.5margin 4.1%

Over 2.51.8352%Under 2.52.0248%

More markets (3)

Asian handicapmargin 3.8%

San Lorenzo +12.0148%Libertad -11.8552%

1st-half resultmargin 5.8%

San Lorenzo6.5115%Draw2.4439%Libertad2.0247%

Odd / even goalsmargin 4.2%

San Lorenzo1.9350%Libertad1.9150%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

0San Lorenzo wins

2Draws

12Libertad wins

Last matches: San Lorenzo

25.10.26Primera DivisionSan LorenzoCerro Porteno13L
18.10.26Primera DivisionSp. LuquenoSan Lorenzo32L
14.10.26Copa ParaguayCerro PortenoSan Lorenzo22D
10.10.26Primera DivisionSan LorenzoSportivo Trinidense11D
03.10.26Primera DivisionGuaraniSan Lorenzo11D

Last matches: Libertad

27.10.26Copa ParaguayLibertadIndependiente FBC31W
23.10.26Primera DivisionLibertadSp. Luqueno10W
18.10.26Primera DivisionSportivo TrinidenseLibertad10L
11.10.26Primera DivisionLibertadGuarani22D
05.10.26Primera DivisionRecoletaLibertad12W

Head-to-head matches

24.08.26Primera DivisionLibertadSan Lorenzo10L
01.05.26Primera DivisionLibertadSan Lorenzo50L
02.03.26Primera DivisionSan LorenzoLibertad07L
20.11.20AperturaSan LorenzoLibertad22D
26.09.20AperturaLibertadSan Lorenzo30L
25.07.20AperturaSan LorenzoLibertad12L

3.36Avg goals43%Both scored71%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

San Lorenzo vs Libertad: head-to-head record

14 meetings since 2015: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

0San Lorenzo wins

2Draws

12Libertad wins

9:38Goals (San Lorenzo : Libertad)

3.36Goals per match

43%BTTS

86%Over 1.5

71%Over 2.5

29%Over 3.5

San Lorenzo at home: 0-1-67:20 goals in 7 games
Libertad at home: 6-1-018:2 goals in 7 games
Libertad's biggest win: 0–7San Lorenzo 0–7 Libertad, 2 Mar 2026

Meetings (14 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
24 Aug 2026	Primera Division	Libertad	1–0	San Lorenzo
1 May 2026	Primera Division	Libertad	5–0	San Lorenzo
2 Mar 2026	Primera Division	San Lorenzo	0–7	Libertad
20 Nov 2020	Apertura	San Lorenzo	2–2	Libertad
26 Sept 2020	Apertura	Libertad	3–0	San Lorenzo
25 Jul 2020	Apertura	San Lorenzo	1–2	Libertad
29 Sept 2019	Apertura	Libertad	3–0	San Lorenzo
14 Jul 2019	Apertura	San Lorenzo	0–1	Libertad
5 May 2019	Apertura	San Lorenzo	3–4	Libertad
3 Mar 2019	Apertura	Libertad	2–1	San Lorenzo
5 Dec 2015	Apertura	Libertad	1–1	San Lorenzo
13 Sept 2015	Apertura	San Lorenzo	0–2	Libertad
28 May 2015	Apertura	Libertad	3–0	San Lorenzo
28 Mar 2015	Apertura	San Lorenzo	1–2	Libertad

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

San Lorenzo0W 3D 2L · goals 7–10

L25.10Primera DivisionHCerro Porteno1–3
L18.10Primera DivisionASp. Luqueno2–3
D14.10Copa ParaguayACerro Porteno2–2
D10.10Primera DivisionHSportivo Trinidense1–1
D03.10Primera DivisionAGuarani1–1

Libertad3W 1D 1L · goals 8–5

W27.10Copa ParaguayHIndependiente FBC3–1
W23.10Primera DivisionHSp. Luqueno1–0
L18.10Primera DivisionASportivo Trinidense0–1
D11.10Primera DivisionHGuarani2–2
W05.10Primera DivisionARecoleta2–1

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

San LorenzoLibertad

1.0Goals scored per game1.6

1.7Goals conceded per game1.0

70%Both teams scored60%

60%Over 2.5 goals40%

1Clean sheets2

30%Failed to score20%

1-2-3Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)2-1-1

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Primera Division: Tabla Anual

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
4	Cerro Porteno	38	+14	62	WDWLL
5	Libertad Asuncion	38	+15	61	WLDWL
6	Guarani	38	+8	54	WLDDW
11	Rubio Nu	38	-23	36	LLDWD
12	San Lorenzo	38	-48	19	LLDDD

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About this match

San Lorenzo vs Libertad preview

San Lorenzo host Libertad in the Primera Division on Sun, 1 Nov 2026, with kick-off at 00:30.

Form · last 5 matches

San LorenzoLLDDD7 scored · 10 conceded

LibertadWWLDW8 scored · 5 conceded

Key facts · last 5

San LorenzoLibertad

1.0Goals scored per game1.6

1.7Goals conceded per game1.0

70%Both teams scored60%

60%Over 2.5 goals40%

1Clean sheets2

Head-to-head in numbers

0San Lorenzo wins

2Draws

12Libertad wins

14 meetings · 3.4 goals per game · both teams scored in 43%

What's at stake

San Lorenzo12th19 pts · 38 played

Libertad5th61 pts · 38 played

Libertad lead by 42 pts

Our pick

Libertad to winLibertad78%Confidence1.50Price

+3 more picks in the Prediction tab

Read the full match preview

Estadio Gunther Vogel hosts the match.

Bookmakers make Libertad the favourite at 1.50 (64% implied), with the draw at 4.34 (22%).

The selection we rate highest is Libertad to win: 78% confidence, priced at 1.50.

We also have Asian handicap: Libertad -0.5 (75%, 1.49), Both teams to score: No (65%, 1.91) and Over 2.5 goals (65%, 1.83).

San Lorenzo come into the game with LLDDD in their last 5 (7 scored, 10 conceded), while Libertad have WWLDW (8 scored, 5 conceded).

Over 2.5 goals came in 60% of San Lorenzo's recent games and 40% of Libertad's, with both teams scoring in 70% and 60%.

Per game, San Lorenzo average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (clean sheets: 1), Libertad 1.6 and 1.0 (clean sheets: 2).

Head-to-head over 14 previous meetings: San Lorenzo 0 wins, Libertad 12 wins, draws 2.

Those 14 games averaged 3.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 43% of them.

The last meeting (2026-08-24) ended Libertad 1–0 San Lorenzo.

In the table, San Lorenzo are 12th (19 pts from 38 games) and Libertad are 5th (61 pts from 38).

Nito explains: San Lorenzo vs Libertad

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for San Lorenzo vs Libertad mean?

The best prices are 6.60 for a San Lorenzo win, 4.34 for a draw and 1.50 for a Libertad win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 6.60 returns 66.00 if San Lorenzo win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 4.9% removed) that is 14% San Lorenzo, 22% draw and 64% Libertad.

What does Nito's pick "Libertad to win" mean?

It wins only if Libertad win; a draw or a San Lorenzo win loses. At 1.50, the price implies a 67% chance; Nito's data rates it at 78%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do San Lorenzo and Libertad matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 70% of San Lorenzo's last 10 matches and 60% of Libertad's last 10. In their 14 recorded meetings it was 43%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. San Lorenzo reached that in 60% of their last 10 matches, Libertad in 40% of their last 10. Their 14 meetings averaged 3.4 goals (71% over 2.5).

What does the form guide LLDDD mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. San Lorenzo, last 5: 0 W · 3 D · 2 L (7 scored, 10 conceded). Libertad, last 5: 3 W · 1 D · 1 L (8 scored, 5 conceded).

Where do San Lorenzo and Libertad stand in the table?

San Lorenzo are 12th with 19 points from 38 games. Libertad are 5th with 61 points from 38 games. The gap between them is 42 points.

San Lorenzo vs Libertad: questions & answers

Who will win San Lorenzo vs Libertad?

Our pick is Libertad to win with 78% confidence (best price 1.50). Bookmaker odds imply San Lorenzo 14%, draw 22%, Libertad 64%.

Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Libertad?

Our both-teams-to-score pick is No (65% confidence, 1.91). Both teams scored in 43% of their 14 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 70% of San Lorenzo's matches and 60% of Libertad's.

What are the odds for San Lorenzo vs Libertad?

Odds: San Lorenzo 6.60, draw 4.34, Libertad 1.50. Our pick Libertad to win is available at 1.50.

When is the San Lorenzo vs Libertad kick-off?

San Lorenzo vs Libertad kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 00:30 (GMT+2) at Estadio Gunther Vogel.

What is the head-to-head record between San Lorenzo and Libertad?

14 meetings: San Lorenzo 0 wins, 2 draws, Libertad 12 wins. Those 14 games averaged 3.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 43% of them.

Other Primera Division matches on 1 Nov

All Primera Division fixtures

San Lorenzo vs Libertad prediction & odds

San Lorenzo

Libertad

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

All our picks for this match

Our picks for this match

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds