Monza vs Napoli preview: Serie A, Wednesday 28 October
Napoli are favourites at Monza, but both sides have been leaking goals. Our model looks past the 1X2 and leans towards both teams to score.
Monza welcome 
Napoli in Serie A on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 19:45 GMT, and the prices make the visitors clear favourites. The more interesting angle, though, may be at both ends of the pitch: recent numbers suggest neither defence is having a quiet autumn. Here is how the data lines up.
What is at stake
The table shows two sides in different neighbourhoods. Napoli sit 10th with 11 points from 8 games and a goal difference of 3, a modest return by the look of things. Monza are 15th on 7 points from 8 matches, with a goal difference of -3, and level on points with Genoa in 16th.
For Monza, that means every point counts as they try to keep some distance from the sides below. For Napoli, a win would be a step towards the upper half. You can follow the full standings on our Serie A page.
Recent form: goals at both ends
Monza's recent sequence reads L W L W L. They lost 2-3 at Torino on 23 October, after a convincing 4-0 home win over Cagliari on 19 October. Before that came a 1-3 defeat at Lazio, a 2-1 home win over Sassuolo and a 2-3 loss at Lecce.
Napoli's run is D W L L W, and it has been eventful. They drew 3-3 with AS Roma on 24 October, beat Bodo/Glimt 4-3 in the UEFA Champions League, lost 0-1 at Venezia and 1-3 at Villarreal, and beat Frosinone 3-0.
The averages over each side's last 10 matches tell a consistent story:
- Monza: 1.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, both teams scored in 70% of matches, over 2.5 goals in 80%, and 3 clean sheets.
- Napoli: 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, both teams scored in 60%, over 2.5 goals in 60%, and 2 clean sheets.
Head-to-head
History leans towards Napoli. In 10 meetings, Monza have won 2, there have been 3 draws and Napoli have won 5. These games have averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in just 30% and over 2.5 goals in 40%.
The recent meetings were mostly tight: Monza 0-1 Napoli on 19 April 2025, Napoli 2-0 Monza on 29 September 2024, and Napoli 0-0 Monza on 29 December 2023. The outlier was Monza 2-4 Napoli on 7 April 2024. That record is the main argument against a goal-heavy evening, and it is worth keeping in mind.
Team news
Monza are without M. Pessina and J. Ziolkowski, while Y. Maye is doubtful. Napoli's list is longer: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli and L. Spinazzola are all out, and A. Rrahmani is a doubt. In our reading, that many absences could make it harder for Napoli to keep things tidy at the back.
What the prices say, and our pick
The best 1X2 prices are 4.5 for Monza, 4.01 for the draw and 1.78 for Napoli. Those translate to implied chances of roughly 22% for a home win, 24% for a draw and 54% for an away win. So the market sees Napoli as favourites, but far from overwhelming ones.
Our model prefers a different market: both teams to score – Yes at 1.65, which implies about 61%. The case rests on recent form, with both teams scoring in 70% of Monza's games and 60% of Napoli's, plus a combined handful of clean sheets and a stretched Napoli back line. The counterweight is the head-to-head, where both teams scored only 30% of the time. That is why we see this as a reasonable lean rather than anything more.
For line-ups and live stats, check the match page. You can browse the rest of today's tips or see how our picks have fared on our track record.
For information only — not betting advice. Prices are the best available at publication. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Sources
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