AC Milan vs Bologna preview: Serie A, Wednesday 28 October
4th-placed AC Milan host 15th-placed Bologna in Serie A. The prices back Milan, but our model's view is on the goals market: both teams to score – No.
AC Milan, 4th in Serie A, host 15th-placed 
Bologna on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 17:30 GMT. The 1X2 prices make Milan clear favourites, but our model's interest lies in a quieter question: will both sides actually find the net?
What's at stake
Milan sit 4th with 15 points from 7 games and a goal difference of 7, wedged between AS Roma (3rd, 17 points) and Como (5th, 14 points). With the pack that tight, home points here carry real weight for their place near the top.
Bologna are 15th on 5 points from 7 matches, with a goal difference of -4. Monza sit just above them on 7 points (from 8 games) and Udinese just below on 4. It's early in the season, but Bologna are at the uncomfortable end of the table and will want to steady things.
The full standings are on our Serie A page.
Recent form
Milan's last five read W L W W D. Most recently they won 2-0 at Udinese on 25 October, a few days after a 0-3 defeat at Bournemouth in the Europa League. Before that came a lively 3-2 home win over Atalanta, a 4-0 win at Salzburg and a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo.
Over their last 10 games, Milan average 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, with 4 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, and 50% went over 2.5 goals.
Bologna's sequence is W L W D L. They come in off a 2-0 win at Cagliari, after losing 1-3 at home to Inter. Earlier they won 2-1 at Lecce, drew 1-1 with Torino and lost 0-1 at Napoli.
Their 10-game numbers are modest at the attacking end: 1 goal scored and 1.1 conceded per game, with 2 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 40% of those games, and only 30% went over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-head and absences
In 50 meetings, AC Milan have won 32, there have been 10 draws and Bologna have won 8. Those games average 2.74 goals, with both teams scoring in 48% and 56% going over 2.5 goals.
The recent meetings have been tighter:
- February 2026: Bologna 0-3 AC Milan (Serie A)
- September 2025: AC Milan 1-0 Bologna (Serie A)
- May 2025: AC Milan 0-1 Bologna (Cup)
- May 2025: AC Milan 3-1 Bologna (Serie A)
Only the 3-1 in May 2025 saw both sides score.
Milan are without S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, M. Gila, R. Loftus-Cheek, D. Moreira and A. Rabiot. Bologna are missing E. Holm, R. Orsolini and R. Piccoli, with J. Enem doubtful.
What the prices say
The best 1X2 prices are 1.73 for a Milan win, 3.92 for the draw and 5 for Bologna. That translates to roughly 56% for Milan, 25% for the draw and 19% for the away side. In plain terms: Milan are favourites, but the market still leaves plenty of room for something else to happen.
Our pick
Our model leans towards both teams to score – No at a best price of 1.95, which implies about 51%.
The reasoning is fairly simple. Both sides have seen both teams score in just 40% of their last 10 games, Bologna average 1 goal per game, and the recent head-to-head has mostly been one-sided on the scoresheet. Milan's 4 clean sheets in 10 add a little weight.
The case against is real, though. The long-run head-to-head shows both teams scoring in 48% of meetings, Milan conceded twice against Atalanta and three times at Bournemouth, and their absence list is long. At 51% implied, this is our model's view on a near coin flip, not a strong conviction.
For lineups and live stats, check the match page, and see how our previous picks have fared on our track record.
For information only — not betting advice. Prices are the best available at publication. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Sources
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