Double chance betting: 1X, X2 and 12 explained

Double chance is built on the 1X2 market. Instead of picking one outcome, you pick two. Like 1X2, it's settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

The most common use is X2 on an away underdog you think can avoid defeat, or 1X on a home side that's hard to beat but doesn't win often. 12 is useful when you expect an open game but can't pick a winner, though it's usually priced very short.

You're covering two outcomes out of three, so the chance of winning is much higher, and the price comes down to match. Roughly, the implied chances of the two outcomes you cover are added together.

That's the trade-off in a sentence: double chance swaps a big payout on one outcome for a smaller payout on two.

You can calculate what the double chance price "should" be from the 1X2 odds. Add the implied probabilities of the two outcomes, then turn the total back into odds:

Double chance odds = 1 ÷ (1/a + 1/b)

where a and b are the 1X2 prices of the two outcomes you're covering.

These are the prices you'd get by splitting your stake between the two 1X2 outcomes yourself. For 1X: put £61.82 on the home win at 2.10 and £38.18 on the draw at 3.40. Either result returns £129.82 for your £100, which is exactly 1.30.

Many bookmakers add a little extra margin to double chance, so their 1X might be 1.27 instead of 1.30. If the bookmaker's double chance price is below the one you calculate, you get a better deal by splitting your stake across the two 1X2 outcomes. If it's above, the double chance market is the better buy.

Here are the fair double chance prices built from a real match on today's schedule:

To see the margin-free version, remove the margin first (see implied probability). In our example the market totals 104.8%, so the fair chance of 1X is 77.0 ÷ 104.8 = 73.5%, a fair price of about 1.36.

Double chance follows the same clock as 1X2: 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Here's how each option settles on some typical results.

Notice the third row: a goal in extra time changes nothing, because the bet was already settled as a draw at 90 minutes. If a match is postponed and not played within the bookmaker's time limit, double chance bets are normally void and the stake is returned.

Double chance works best when your view is "this team won't lose" rather than "this team will win".

• Strong home sides that draw a lot. A side that rarely loses at home but often settles for a point suits 1X.
• Underdogs with a solid defence. If an away team defends deep and the game projects as low-scoring, X2 covers the draw that often comes with it.
• Matches where the draw is unlikely. 12 can fit a must-win game for both teams, but check the price: it's often too short to be worth it.

It makes less sense when the price falls very low. A 1X at 1.15 needs to win about 87% of the time just to break even (1 ÷ 1.15 = 87.0%). One defeat wipes out the profit from six or seven wins.

The middle row is draw no bet, the halfway house between a straight win and double chance: you don't win on a draw, but you get your stake back.

• Thinking it's "safe". A higher win rate isn't the same as profit. Short prices lose money just as surely as long ones if they're too short.
• Using it as filler in accumulators. Adding three or four 1.25 double chances looks low-risk, but each leg still carries margin and a real chance of failing (see accumulators).
• Not checking the derived price. Work out 1 ÷ (1/a + 1/b) from the 1X2. If the bookmaker's double chance price is lower, split your stake instead.
• Picking 12 out of habit. The draw is often the outcome most likely to beat a 12 bet in tight matches.

Our double chance predictions show matches where the numbers suggest one side is unlikely to lose, along with the price. Check team form and home/away records on our stats pages, and compare the prices at several bookmakers before you bet.