Serie AUpcoming

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG prediction & odds

Mirassol

23:30

Kick-off Sat 14 Nov, 23:30

Atletico-MG

Odds 1X2

1Mirassol2.07XDraw3.612Atletico-MG3.73

MirassolvsAtletico-MG

Nito’s pick2.00

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Total goals 2.5Under 2.5

2.00

60%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Serie A
Kick-off: Sat 14 Nov 23:30 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Total goals 2.5Under 2.560%Confidence2.00Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 2.00 means bookmakers give it 50%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+10 pts)
3+ goals in 30% of Mirassol's last 5 and 20% of Atletico-MG's
Goals per game in the last 5: Mirassol matches 2.3, Atletico-MG matches 2.1
Their 3 meetings average 3.0 goals; both teams scored in 67%

Best price 2.00 means bookmakers give it 50%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+10 pts)

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Mirassol47%2.07

Draw27%3.61

Atletico-MG26%3.73

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 2.8%

Mirassol2.0747%Draw3.6127%Atletico-MG3.7326%

Total goals 2.5margin 3.2%

Over 2.51.8852%Under 2.52.0048%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

0Mirassol wins

1Draws

2Atletico-MG wins

Last matches: Mirassol

03.11.26BrasileirãoChapecoenseMirassol12W
30.10.26BrasileirãoCorinthiansMirassol20L
24.10.26BrasileirãoMirassolSao Paulo11D
16.10.26BrasileirãoMirassolInternacional20W
11.10.26BrasileirãoBahiaMirassol10L

Last matches: Atletico-MG

Primeira LigaChapecoenseAtletico-MG22D
Primeira LigaAtletico-MGJoinville20W
Primeira LigaCruzeiroAtletico-MG10L
07.11.26CupAtletico-MGGrêmio11D
05.11.26BrasileirãoBotafogoAtletico-MG10L

Head-to-head matches

16.05.26BrasileirãoAtletico-MGMirassol31L
28.09.25Serie AAtletico-MGMirassol10L
26.04.25Serie AMirassolAtletico-MG22D

3.00Avg goals67%Both scored67%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG: head-to-head record

3 meetings since 2025: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

0Mirassol wins

1Draws

2Atletico-MG wins

3:6Goals (Mirassol : Atletico-MG)

3.00Goals per match

67%BTTS

67%Over 1.5

67%Over 2.5

67%Over 3.5

Mirassol at home: 0-1-02:2 goals in 1 games
Atletico-MG at home: 2-0-04:1 goals in 2 games
Atletico-MG's biggest win: 3–1Atletico-MG 3–1 Mirassol, 16 May 2026

Meetings (3 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
16 May 2026	Brasileirão	Atletico-MG	3–1	Mirassol
28 Sept 2025	Serie A	Atletico-MG	1–0	Mirassol
26 Apr 2025	Serie A	Mirassol	2–2	Atletico-MG

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Mirassol2W 1D 2L · goals 5–5

W03.11BrasileirãoAChapecoense2–1
L30.10BrasileirãoACorinthians0–2
D24.10BrasileirãoHSao Paulo1–1
W16.10BrasileirãoHInternacional2–0
L11.10BrasileirãoABahia0–1

Atletico-MG1W 2D 2L · goals 5–5

D01.01Primeira LigaAChapecoense2–2
W01.01Primeira LigaHJoinville2–0
L01.01Primeira LigaACruzeiro0–1
D07.11CupHGrêmio1–1
L05.11BrasileirãoABotafogo0–1

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

MirassolAtletico-MG

1.2Goals scored per game0.8

1.1Goals conceded per game1.3

50%Both teams scored30%

30%Over 2.5 goals20%

2Clean sheets2

30%Failed to score50%

2-2-0Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)0-1-5

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

MirassolAtletico-MG

Serie A 2026 · 32 gamesSerie A 2026 · 33 games

1.1Goals scored1.3

1.4Goals conceded1.2

5.1Corners5.2

13.3Shots13.8

49%Possession48%

2.5Yellow cards1.7

9%Clean sheets24%

28%Failed to score30%

7-6-4Home / away record (W-D-L)4-3-9

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Serie A

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
6	Bahia	34	+5	53	LWDLW
7	Atletico-MG	34	+4	50	LLLWW
8	Bragantino	34	+5	47	WWLDW
13	Vasco	33	-7	41	WLWLD
14	Mirassol	34	-9	40	WLDWL
15	Vitoria	34	-16	38	LLDDL

Comments

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About this match

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG preview

Mirassol host Atletico-MG in the Serie A on Sat, 14 Nov 2026, with kick-off at 23:30.

Form · last 5 matches

MirassolWLDWL5 scored · 5 conceded

Atletico-MGDWLDL5 scored · 5 conceded

Key facts · last 5

MirassolAtletico-MG

1.2Goals scored per game0.8

1.1Goals conceded per game1.3

50%Both teams scored30%

30%Over 2.5 goals20%

2Clean sheets2

Head-to-head in numbers

0Mirassol wins

1Draws

2Atletico-MG wins

3 meetings · 3.0 goals per game · both teams scored in 67%

What's at stake

Mirassol14th40 pts · 34 played

Atletico-MG7th50 pts · 34 played

Atletico-MG lead by 10 pts

Our pick

Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.560%Confidence2.00Price

Read the full match preview

The best available prices are 2.07 on Mirassol, 3.61 on the draw and 3.73 on Atletico-MG, which is roughly 47%, 27% and 26% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

The selection we rate highest is Under 2.5 goals: 60% confidence, priced at 2.00.

Recent form over the last 5: Mirassol WLDWL (goals 5–5), Atletico-MG DWLDL (goals 5–5).

Both teams scored in 50% of Mirassol's recent games and 30% of Atletico-MG's; over 2.5 goals landed in 30% and 20% respectively.

Per game, Mirassol average 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (clean sheets: 2), Atletico-MG 0.8 and 1.3 (clean sheets: 2).

Across 3 head-to-head games the record reads 0–1–2 (wins–draws–losses) from Mirassol's side.

Those 3 games averaged 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.

The last meeting (2026-05-16) ended Atletico-MG 3–1 Mirassol.

Mirassol sit 14th on 40 pts after 34 games, Atletico-MG 7th on 50 pts.

Nito explains: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG mean?

The best prices are 2.07 for a Mirassol win, 3.61 for a draw and 3.73 for a Atletico-MG win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 2.07 returns 20.70 if Mirassol win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 2.8% removed) that is 47% Mirassol, 27% draw and 26% Atletico-MG.

What does Nito's pick "Under 2.5 goals" mean?

It wins if the match has fewer than 2.5 goals in total. At 2.00, the price implies a 50% chance; Nito's data rates it at 60%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Mirassol and Atletico-MG matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 50% of Mirassol's last 10 matches and 30% of Atletico-MG's last 10. In their 3 recorded meetings it was 67%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Mirassol reached that in 30% of their last 10 matches, Atletico-MG in 20% of their last 10. Their 3 meetings averaged 3.0 goals (67% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WLDWL mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Mirassol, last 5: 2 W · 1 D · 2 L (5 scored, 5 conceded). Atletico-MG, last 5: 1 W · 2 D · 2 L (5 scored, 5 conceded).

Where do Mirassol and Atletico-MG stand in the table?

Mirassol are 14th with 40 points from 34 games. Atletico-MG are 7th with 50 points from 34 games. The gap between them is 10 points.

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG: questions & answers

Who will win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?

Bookmaker odds imply Mirassol 47%, draw 27%, Atletico-MG 26%.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?

Both teams scored in 67% of their 3 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 50% of Mirassol's matches and 30% of Atletico-MG's.

What are the odds for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?

Odds: Mirassol 2.07, draw 3.61, Atletico-MG 3.73. Our pick Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.00.

When is the Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kick-off?

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kicks off on Sat, 14 Nov 2026 at 23:30 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?

3 meetings: Mirassol 0 wins, 1 draws, Atletico-MG 2 wins. Those 3 games averaged 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG prediction & odds

Mirassol

Atletico-MG

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds