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Chelsea vs Manchester Utd prediction & odds

Chelsea

14:30

Kick-off Sat 31 Oct, 14:30

Manchester Utd

Odds 1X2

1Chelsea1.88Nito’s pickXDraw3.952Manchester Utd4.10

ChelseavsManchester Utd

Nito’s pick1.88

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Match result (1X2)Chelsea

1.88

60%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Premier League
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct 14:30 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Match result (1X2)Chelsea60%Confidence1.88Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.88 means bookmakers give it 53%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+7 pts)
Chelsea won 2 of their last 5 (goals 8–7); Manchester Utd won 0 (goals 3–11)
In the table Chelsea are 5th with 13 pts, Manchester Utd 16th with 7 pts
In 50 meetings Chelsea won 15, Manchester Utd won 17, 18 were drawn

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

All our picks for this match

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Every market where our confidence is at least 60%

Our picks for this match

Match result (1X2)Chelsea

Confidence60%

Indicative price1.88

We rate Chelsea to win at 60% — the price of 1.88 implies only 53%.

Asian handicap -0.5Chelsea -0.5

Confidence60%

Indicative price1.90

We rate Asian handicap: Chelsea -0.5 at 60% — the price of 1.90 implies only 53%.

Picks can change until kick-off; the version live at kick-off is the one settled, at a flat 1-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled as two half-stakes. 18+

Today's acca →

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Chelsea52%1.88

Draw25%3.95

Manchester Utd24%4.10

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 2.9%

Chelsea1.8852%Draw3.9525%Manchester Utd4.1024%

Double chance

Chelsea or Draw1.19Chelsea or Manchester Utd1.19Draw or Manchester Utd2.00

Total goals 2.5margin 3.5%

Over 2.51.6658%Under 2.52.3142%

More markets (3)

Asian handicapmargin 2.4%

Chelsea -0.51.9051%Manchester Utd +0.52.0149%

1st-half resultmargin 4.0%

Chelsea2.4839%Draw2.4939%Manchester Utd4.2523%

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.1%

Chelsea1.9550%Manchester Utd1.9350%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

15Chelsea wins

18Draws

17Manchester Utd wins

Last matches: Chelsea

28.10.26EFL CupLiverpoolChelsea11D
24.10.26Premier LeagueChelseaTottenham02L
17.10.26Premier LeagueEvertonChelsea02W
10.10.26Premier LeagueChelseaBournemouth51W
18.09.26Premier LeagueBrentfordChelsea30L

Last matches: Manchester Utd

25.10.26Premier LeagueManchester UtdBournemouth03L
21.10.26UEFA Champions LeagueComoManchester Utd41L
18.10.26Premier LeagueLeedsManchester Utd11D
13.10.26UEFA Champions LeagueAtl. MadridManchester Utd20L
10.10.26Premier LeagueManchester UtdTottenham11D

Head-to-head matches

18.04.26Premier LeagueChelseaManchester Utd01L
20.09.25Premier LeagueManchester UtdChelsea21L
16.05.25Premier LeagueChelseaManchester Utd10W
03.11.24Premier LeagueManchester UtdChelsea11D
04.04.24Premier LeagueChelseaManchester Utd43W
06.12.23Premier LeagueManchester UtdChelsea21L

2.58Avg goals60%Both scored48%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Chelsea vs Manchester Utd: head-to-head record

50 meetings since 2008: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

15Chelsea wins

18Draws

17Manchester Utd wins

60:69Goals (Chelsea : Manchester Utd)

2.58Goals per match

60%BTTS

72%Over 1.5

48%Over 2.5

28%Over 3.5

Chelsea at home: 12-10-741:35 goals in 29 games
Manchester Utd at home: 10-8-334:19 goals in 21 games
Chelsea's biggest win: 4–0Chelsea 4–0 Manchester Utd, 23 Oct 2016
Manchester Utd's biggest win: 4–0Manchester Utd 4–0 Chelsea, 11 Aug 2019

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
18 Apr 2026	Premier League	Chelsea	0–1	Manchester Utd
20 Sept 2025	Premier League	Manchester Utd	2–1	Chelsea
16 May 2025	Premier League	Chelsea	1–0	Manchester Utd
3 Nov 2024	Premier League	Manchester Utd	1–1	Chelsea
4 Apr 2024	Premier League	Chelsea	4–3	Manchester Utd
6 Dec 2023	Premier League	Manchester Utd	2–1	Chelsea
25 May 2023	Premier League	Manchester Utd	4–1	Chelsea
22 Oct 2022	Premier League	Chelsea	1–1	Manchester Utd
28 Apr 2022	Premier League	Manchester Utd	1–1	Chelsea
28 Nov 2021	Premier League	Chelsea	1–1	Manchester Utd
28 Feb 2021	Premier League	Chelsea	0–0	Manchester Utd
24 Oct 2020	Premier League	Manchester Utd	0–0	Chelsea
19 Jul 2020	FA Cup	Manchester Utd	1–3	Chelsea
17 Feb 2020	Premier League	Chelsea	0–2	Manchester Utd
30 Oct 2019	Carling Cup	Chelsea	1–2	Manchester Utd
11 Aug 2019	Premier League	Manchester Utd	4–0	Chelsea
28 Apr 2019	Premier League	Manchester Utd	1–1	Chelsea
18 Feb 2019	FA Cup	Chelsea	0–2	Manchester Utd
20 Oct 2018	Premier League	Chelsea	2–2	Manchester Utd
19 May 2018	FA Cup	Chelsea	1–0	Manchester Utd

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Chelsea2W 1D 2L · goals 8–7

D28.10EFL CupALiverpool1–1
L24.10Premier LeagueHTottenham0–2
W17.10Premier LeagueAEverton2–0
W10.10Premier LeagueHBournemouth5–1
L18.09Premier LeagueABrentford0–3

Manchester Utd0W 2D 3L · goals 3–11

L25.10Premier LeagueHBournemouth0–3
L21.10UEFA Champions LeagueAComo1–4
D18.10Premier LeagueALeeds1–1
L13.10UEFA Champions LeagueAAtl. Madrid0–2
D10.10Premier LeagueHTottenham1–1

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

ChelseaManchester Utd

2.3Goals scored per game1.2

1.7Goals conceded per game1.8

60%Both teams scored60%

60%Over 2.5 goals50%

2Clean sheets1

20%Failed to score30%

4-1-1Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)0-3-2

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

ChelseaManchester Utd

Premier League 2026/2027 · 5 gamesPremier League 2026/2027 · 5 games

2.0Goals scored1.6

2.4Goals conceded1.6

6.6Corners7.2

14.4Shots22.6

47%Possession60%

1.8Yellow cards1.2

0%Clean sheets0%

20%Failed to score40%

1-1-0Home / away record (W-D-L)0-2-1

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Premier League

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
4	Liverpool	8	+3	15	WWLWD
5	Chelsea	8	+2	13	LWWLD
6	Brentford	8	+5	11	DLDWD
15	Fulham	8	-2	8	WWLDD
16	Manchester Utd	8	-3	7	LDDDL
17	Crystal Palace	8	-10	7	LLWDL

Injuries and absences

Players ruled out or doubtful for this match

Injuries & suspensions

Chelsea

✕A. AnselminoInjury
✕J. GittensAnkle Injury
✕J. HatoInjury
✕R. JamesKnee Injury
✕Joao PedroThigh Injury
✕M. LacroixMuscle Injury
✕E. MartinezBroken jawbone

Manchester Utd

✕P. DorguHamstring Injury
✕B. SeskoLeg Injury
✕L. ShawInjury
✕M. UgarteKnee Injury
?M. RashfordHip Injury

✕ out · ? doubtful

Comments

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About this match

Chelsea vs Manchester Utd preview

Chelsea host Manchester Utd in the Premier League on Sat, 31 Oct 2026, with kick-off at 14:30.

Form · last 5 matches

ChelseaDLWWL8 scored · 7 conceded

Manchester UtdLLDLD3 scored · 11 conceded

Key facts · last 5

ChelseaManchester Utd

2.3Goals scored per game1.2

1.7Goals conceded per game1.8

60%Both teams scored60%

60%Over 2.5 goals50%

2Clean sheets1

Head-to-head in numbers

15Chelsea wins

18Draws

17Manchester Utd wins

50 meetings · 2.6 goals per game · both teams scored in 60%

What's at stake

Chelsea5th13 pts · 8 played

Manchester Utd16th7 pts · 8 played

Chelsea lead by 6 pts

Our pick

Chelsea to winChelsea60%Confidence1.88Price

+1 more picks in the Prediction tab

Read the full match preview

The best available prices are 1.88 on Chelsea, 3.95 on the draw and 4.10 on Manchester Utd, which is roughly 52%, 25% and 24% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

The selection we rate highest is Chelsea to win: 60% confidence, priced at 1.88.

We also have Asian handicap: Chelsea -0.5 (60%, 1.90).

Recent form over the last 5: Chelsea DLWWL (goals 8–7), Manchester Utd LLDLD (goals 3–11).

Both teams scored in 60% of Chelsea's recent games and 60% of Manchester Utd's; over 2.5 goals landed in 60% and 50% respectively.

Per game, Chelsea average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (clean sheets: 2), Manchester Utd 1.2 and 1.8 (clean sheets: 1).

Across 50 head-to-head games the record reads 15–18–17 (wins–draws–losses) from Chelsea's side.

Those 50 games averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.

The last meeting (2026-04-18) ended Chelsea 0–1 Manchester Utd.

Chelsea sit 5th on 13 pts after 8 games, Manchester Utd 16th on 7 pts.

Nito explains: Chelsea vs Manchester Utd

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Chelsea vs Manchester Utd mean?

The best prices are 1.88 for a Chelsea win, 3.95 for a draw and 4.10 for a Manchester Utd win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.88 returns 18.80 if Chelsea win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 2.9% removed) that is 52% Chelsea, 25% draw and 24% Manchester Utd.

What does Nito's pick "Chelsea to win" mean?

It wins only if Chelsea win; a draw or a Manchester Utd win loses. At 1.88, the price implies a 53% chance; Nito's data rates it at 60%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Chelsea and Manchester Utd matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 60% of Chelsea's last 10 matches and 60% of Manchester Utd's last 10. In their 50 recorded meetings it was 60%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Chelsea reached that in 60% of their last 10 matches, Manchester Utd in 50% of their last 10. Their 50 meetings averaged 2.6 goals (48% over 2.5).

What does the form guide DLWWL mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Chelsea, last 5: 2 W · 1 D · 2 L (8 scored, 7 conceded). Manchester Utd, last 5: 0 W · 2 D · 3 L (3 scored, 11 conceded).

Where do Chelsea and Manchester Utd stand in the table?

Chelsea are 5th with 13 points from 8 games. Manchester Utd are 16th with 7 points from 8 games. The gap between them is 6 points.

Chelsea vs Manchester Utd: questions & answers

Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester Utd?

Our pick is Chelsea to win with 60% confidence (best price 1.88). Bookmaker odds imply Chelsea 52%, draw 25%, Manchester Utd 24%.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Manchester Utd?

Both teams scored in 60% of their 50 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 60% of Chelsea's matches and 60% of Manchester Utd's.

What are the odds for Chelsea vs Manchester Utd?

Odds: Chelsea 1.88, draw 3.95, Manchester Utd 4.10. Our pick Chelsea to win is available at 1.88.

When is the Chelsea vs Manchester Utd kick-off?

Chelsea vs Manchester Utd kicks off on Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 14:30 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Manchester Utd?

50 meetings: Chelsea 15 wins, 18 draws, Manchester Utd 17 wins. Those 50 games averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.

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Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

All our picks for this match

Our picks for this match

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds