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Marseille vs Toulouse prediction & odds

Marseille

21:45

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 21:45

Toulouse

Odds 1X2

1Marseille1.91XDraw3.432Toulouse3.19

Orange Vélodrome

MarseillevsToulouse

Nito’s pick2.02

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Asian handicap -0.5Toulouse +0.5

2.02

60%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Ligue 1
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 21:45 EET
Stadium: Orange Vélodrome
Capacity: 67,394
City: Marseille

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Asian handicap -0.5Toulouse +0.560%Confidence2.02Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 2.02 means bookmakers give it 50%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+10 pts)
Toulouse won 2 of their last 5 (goals 10–6); Marseille won 3 (goals 11–7)
In the table Toulouse are 11th with 10 pts, Marseille 8th with 12 pts
In 50 meetings Toulouse won 8, Marseille won 21, 21 were drawn

Best price 2.02 means bookmakers give it 50%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+10 pts)

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Marseille46%1.91

Draw26%3.43

Toulouse28%3.19

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 12.9%

Marseille1.9146%Draw3.4326%Toulouse3.1928%

Double chance

Marseille or Draw1.22Marseille or Toulouse1.18Draw or Toulouse1.90

1st-half resultmargin 15.1%

Marseille2.1840%Draw2.3637%Toulouse3.7323%

More markets (1)

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Marseille1.9450%Toulouse1.9250%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

21Marseille wins

21Draws

8Toulouse wins

Last matches: Marseille

25.10.26Ligue 1MarseilleLe Havre43W
22.10.26Europa LeagueSturm GrazMarseille10L
18.10.26Ligue 1AngersMarseille25W
15.10.26Europa LeagueMarseilleOlympiacos Piraeus01L
11.10.26Ligue 1TroyesMarseille02W

Last matches: Toulouse

25.10.26Ligue 1ToulouseTroyes00D
16.10.26Ligue 1Le MansToulouse03W
10.10.26Ligue 1MonacoToulouse22D
19.09.26Ligue 1ToulouseLe Havre32W
12.09.26Ligue 1LorientToulouse22D

Head-to-head matches

07.03.26Ligue 1ToulouseMarseille01W
04.03.26Coupe de FranceMarseilleToulouse23L
29.11.25Ligue 1MarseilleToulouse22D
06.04.25Ligue 1MarseilleToulouse32W
31.08.24Ligue 1ToulouseMarseille13W
21.04.24Ligue 1ToulouseMarseille22D

2.48Avg goals54%Both scored42%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Marseille vs Toulouse: head-to-head record

50 meetings since 1999: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

21Marseille wins

21Draws

8Toulouse wins

77:47Goals (Marseille : Toulouse)

2.48Goals per match

54%BTTS

68%Over 1.5

42%Over 2.5

28%Over 3.5

Marseille at home: 11-10-341:22 goals in 24 games
Toulouse at home: 5-11-1025:36 goals in 26 games
Marseille's biggest win: 6–1Marseille 6–1 Toulouse, 29 Dec 2022
Toulouse's biggest win: 3–0Toulouse 3–0 Marseille, 24 Feb 2007

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
7 Mar 2026	Ligue 1	Toulouse	0–1	Marseille
4 Mar 2026	Coupe de France	Marseille	2–3	Toulouse
29 Nov 2025	Ligue 1	Marseille	2–2	Toulouse
6 Apr 2025	Ligue 1	Marseille	3–2	Toulouse
31 Aug 2024	Ligue 1	Toulouse	1–3	Marseille
21 Apr 2024	Ligue 1	Toulouse	2–2	Marseille
17 Sept 2023	Ligue 1	Marseille	0–0	Toulouse
19 Feb 2023	Ligue 1	Toulouse	2–3	Marseille
29 Dec 2022	Ligue 1	Marseille	6–1	Toulouse
8 Feb 2020	Ligue 1	Marseille	1–0	Toulouse
24 Nov 2019	Ligue 1	Toulouse	0–2	Marseille
18 May 2019	Ligue 1	Toulouse	2–5	Marseille
10 Aug 2018	Ligue 1	Marseille	4–0	Toulouse
11 Mar 2018	Ligue 1	Toulouse	1–2	Marseille
24 Sept 2017	Ligue 1	Marseille	2–0	Toulouse
9 Apr 2017	Ligue 1	Toulouse	0–0	Marseille
8 Jan 2017	Cup	Toulouse	1–1	Marseille
14 Aug 2016	Ligue 1	Marseille	0–0	Toulouse
6 Mar 2016	Ligue 1	Marseille	1–1	Toulouse
13 Jan 2016	League Cup	Toulouse	1–1	Marseille

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Marseille3W 0D 2L · goals 11–7

W25.10Ligue 1HLe Havre4–3
L22.10Europa LeagueASturm Graz0–1
W18.10Ligue 1AAngers5–2
L15.10Europa LeagueHOlympiacos Piraeus0–1
W11.10Ligue 1ATroyes2–0

Toulouse2W 3D 0L · goals 10–6

D25.10Ligue 1HTroyes0–0
W16.10Ligue 1ALe Mans3–0
D10.10Ligue 1AMonaco2–2
W19.09Ligue 1HLe Havre3–2
D12.09Ligue 1ALorient2–2

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

MarseilleToulouse

1.5Goals scored per game1.3

1.9Goals conceded per game1.6

50%Both teams scored50%

50%Over 2.5 goals70%

1Clean sheets2

40%Failed to score40%

1-0-3Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)1-3-1

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

MarseilleToulouse

Ligue 1 2026/2027 · 3 gamesLigue 1 2026/2027 · 5 games

2.0Goals scored1.4

1.7Goals conceded1.8

5.0Corners4.6

13.7Shots14.8

64%Possession52%

0.3Yellow cards1.6

33%Clean sheets0%

33%Failed to score40%

1-0-1Home / away record (W-D-L)0-2-0

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Ligue 1

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
7	Lens	8	+4	13	WWWLD
8	Marseille	8	+5	12	WWWLL
9	Lorient	8	+1	12	DWWLD
10	Nice	8	-2	11	WLWWL
11	Toulouse	8	+1	10	DWDWD
12	Auxerre	8	-6	10	DWLWW

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About this match

Marseille vs Toulouse preview

Ligue 1 fixture: Marseille welcome Toulouse on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 (21:45 kick-off).

Form · last 5 matches

MarseilleWLWLW11 scored · 7 conceded

ToulouseDWDWD10 scored · 6 conceded

Key facts · last 5

MarseilleToulouse

1.5Goals scored per game1.3

1.9Goals conceded per game1.6

50%Both teams scored50%

50%Over 2.5 goals70%

1Clean sheets2

Head-to-head in numbers

21Marseille wins

21Draws

8Toulouse wins

50 meetings · 2.5 goals per game · both teams scored in 54%

What's at stake

Marseille8th12 pts · 8 played

Toulouse11th10 pts · 8 played

Marseille lead by 2 pts

Our pick

Asian handicapToulouse +0.560%Confidence2.02Price

Read the full match preview

Orange Vélodrome hosts the match.

Bookmakers make Marseille the favourite at 1.91 (46% implied), with the draw at 3.43 (26%).

The selection we rate highest is Asian handicap: Toulouse +0.5: 60% confidence, priced at 2.02.

Marseille come into the game with WLWLW in their last 5 (11 scored, 7 conceded), while Toulouse have DWDWD (10 scored, 6 conceded).

Over 2.5 goals came in 50% of Marseille's recent games and 70% of Toulouse's, with both teams scoring in 50% and 50%.

Per game, Marseille average 1.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (clean sheets: 1), Toulouse 1.3 and 1.6 (clean sheets: 2).

Head-to-head over 50 previous meetings: Marseille 21 wins, Toulouse 8 wins, draws 21.

Those 50 games averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 54% of them.

The last meeting (2026-03-07) ended Toulouse 0–1 Marseille.

In the table, Marseille are 8th (12 pts from 8 games) and Toulouse are 11th (10 pts from 8).

Nito explains: Marseille vs Toulouse

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Marseille vs Toulouse mean?

The best prices are 1.91 for a Marseille win, 3.43 for a draw and 3.19 for a Toulouse win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.91 returns 19.10 if Marseille win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 12.9% removed) that is 46% Marseille, 26% draw and 28% Toulouse.

What does Nito's pick "Asian handicap: Toulouse +0.5" mean?

Asian handicap: +0.5 goals are added to Toulouse's final score, and the bet wins if Toulouse are still ahead after that. At 2.02, the price implies a 50% chance; Nito's data rates it at 60%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Marseille and Toulouse matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 50% of Marseille's last 10 matches and 50% of Toulouse's last 10. In their 50 recorded meetings it was 54%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Marseille reached that in 50% of their last 10 matches, Toulouse in 70% of their last 10. Their 50 meetings averaged 2.5 goals (42% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WLWLW mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Marseille, last 5: 3 W · 0 D · 2 L (11 scored, 7 conceded). Toulouse, last 5: 2 W · 3 D · 0 L (10 scored, 6 conceded).

Where do Marseille and Toulouse stand in the table?

Marseille are 8th with 12 points from 8 games. Toulouse are 11th with 10 points from 8 games. The gap between them is 2 points.

Marseille vs Toulouse: questions & answers

Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?

Our pick is Asian handicap: Toulouse +0.5 with 60% confidence (best price 2.02). Bookmaker odds imply Marseille 46%, draw 26%, Toulouse 28%.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Toulouse?

Both teams scored in 54% of their 50 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 50% of Marseille's matches and 50% of Toulouse's.

What are the odds for Marseille vs Toulouse?

Odds: Marseille 1.91, draw 3.43, Toulouse 3.19. Our pick Asian handicap: Toulouse +0.5 is available at 2.02.

When is the Marseille vs Toulouse kick-off?

Marseille vs Toulouse kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 21:45 (GMT+2) at Orange Vélodrome.

What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Toulouse?

50 meetings: Marseille 21 wins, 21 draws, Toulouse 8 wins. Those 50 games averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 54% of them.

Other Ligue 1 matches on 1 Nov

All Ligue 1 fixtures

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction & odds

Marseille

Toulouse

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds