EFL TrophyUpcoming

Burton vs Notts County prediction & odds

Burton

21:00

Kick-off Tue 10 Nov, 21:00

Notts County

Odds 1X2

1Burton2.55XDraw3.852Notts County2.55

BurtonvsNotts County

Nito’s pick2.51

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Total goals 2.5Under 2.5

2.51

60%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: EFL Trophy
Kick-off: Tue 10 Nov 21:00 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Total goals 2.5Under 2.560%Confidence2.51Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 2.51 means bookmakers give it 40%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+20 pts)
3+ goals in 50% of Burton's last 5 and 40% of Notts County's
Goals per game in the last 5: Burton matches 2.3, Notts County matches 2.7
Their 5 meetings average 2.8 goals; both teams scored in 80%

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Burton38%2.55

Draw25%3.85

Notts County38%2.55

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 4.4%

Burton2.5538%Draw3.8525%Notts County2.5538%

Total goals 2.5margin 7.0%

Over 2.51.4963%Under 2.52.5137%

Asian handicapmargin 4.7%

Burton 01.9250%Notts County 01.9050%

More markets (1)

1st-half resultmargin 9.1%

Burton2.9431%Draw2.4438%Notts County2.9331%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

0Burton wins

1Draws

4Notts County wins

Last matches: Burton

07.11.26FA CupBurtonAFC Rushden & Diamonds40W
31.10.26League OneWycombeBurton20L
24.10.26League OneBurtonLeyton Orient21W
20.10.26League OneBurtonBradford City00D
17.10.26League OnePeterboroughBurton22D

Last matches: Notts County

07.11.26FA CupAltrinchamNotts County22D

Burton vs Notts County: head-to-head record

5 meetings since 2009: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

0Burton wins

1Draws

4Notts County wins

4:10Goals (Burton : Notts County)

2.80Goals per match

80%BTTS

80%Over 1.5

60%Over 2.5

20%Over 3.5

Burton at home: 0-0-22:6 goals in 2 games
Notts County at home: 2-1-04:2 goals in 3 games
Notts County's biggest win: 1–4Burton 1–4 Notts County, 28 Dec 2009

Meetings (5 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
29 Aug 2026	League One	Notts County	2–1	Burton
24 Sept 2024	FL Trophy	Burton	1–2	Notts County
3 Sept 2013	FL Trophy

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Burton2W 2D 1L · goals 8–5

W07.11FA CupHAFC Rushden & Diamonds4–0
L31.10League OneAWycombe0–2
W24.10League OneHLeyton Orient2–1
D20.10League OneHBradford City0–0
D17.10League OneAPeterborough2–2

Notts County2W 2D 1L · goals 7–5

D07.11FA CupAAltrincham2–2
W31.10League OneAMansfield2–0
D24.10League OneHStockport County1–1
W20.10League OneHSheffield Wed

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

BurtonNotts County

1.2Goals scored per game1.5

1.1Goals conceded per game1.2

40%Both teams scored50%

50%Over 2.5 goals40%

4Clean sheets2

30%Failed to score30%

2-1-2Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)1-1-2

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

BurtonNotts County

League One 2026/2027 · 8 gamesLeague One 2026/2027 · 12 games

1.6Goals scored1.1

1.9Goals conceded1.2

2.8Corners4.3

8.9Shots11.8

45%Possession44%

1.5Yellow cards2.8

0%Clean sheets17%

13%Failed to score25%

1-3-1Home / away record (W-D-L)1-3-2

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Group 6

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
1	Notts County	2	+5	6	WW
2	Burton	2	0	3	WOLO
3	Nottingham U21	2	-4	2	LWO

Comments

What do you think about this match and Nito's pick? Be kind — no links, no advertising.

18+ · No links or advertising · Comments are moderated.

No comments yet. Start the conversation.

About this match

Burton vs Notts County preview

On Tue, 10 Nov 2026 at 21:00, Burton take on Notts County in the EFL Trophy.

Form · last 5 matches

BurtonWLWDD8 scored · 5 conceded

Notts CountyDWDWL7 scored · 5 conceded

Key facts · last 5

BurtonNotts County

1.2Goals scored per game1.5

1.1Goals conceded per game1.2

40%Both teams scored50%

50%Over 2.5 goals40%

4Clean sheets2

Head-to-head in numbers

0Burton wins

1Draws

4Notts County wins

5 meetings · 2.8 goals per game · both teams scored in 80%

What's at stake

Burton2nd3 pts · 2 played

Nito explains: Burton vs Notts County

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Burton vs Notts County mean?

The best prices are 2.55 for a Burton win, 3.85 for a draw and 2.55 for a Notts County win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 2.55 returns 25.50 if Burton win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 4.4% removed) that is 38% Burton, 25% draw and 38% Notts County.

What does Nito's pick "Under 2.5 goals" mean?

It wins if the match has fewer than 2.5 goals in total. At 2.51, the price implies a 40% chance; Nito's data rates it at 60%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Burton and Notts County matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 40% of Burton's last 10 matches and 50% of Notts County's last 10. In their 5 recorded meetings it was 80%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Burton reached that in 50% of their last 10 matches, Notts County in 40% of their last 10. Their 5 meetings averaged 2.8 goals (60% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WLWDD mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Burton, last 5: 2 W · 2 D · 1 L (8 scored, 5 conceded). Notts County, last 5: 2 W · 2 D · 1 L (7 scored, 5 conceded).

Where do Burton and Notts County stand in the table?

Burton are 2nd with 3 points from 2 games. Notts County are 1st with 6 points from 2 games. The gap between them is 3 points.

Burton vs Notts County: questions & answers

Who will win Burton vs Notts County?

Bookmaker odds imply Burton 38%, draw 25%, Notts County 38%.

Will both teams score in Burton vs Notts County?

Both teams scored in 80% of their 5 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 40% of Burton's matches and 50% of Notts County's.

What are the odds for Burton vs Notts County?

Odds: Burton 2.55, draw 3.85, Notts County 2.55. Our pick Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.51.

When is the Burton vs Notts County kick-off?

Burton vs Notts County kicks off on Tue, 10 Nov 2026 at 21:00 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Burton and Notts County?

5 meetings: Burton 0 wins, 1 draws, Notts County 4 wins. Those 5 games averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.

Other EFL Trophy matches on 10 Nov

All EFL Trophy fixtures

Burton vs Notts County prediction & odds

Burton

Notts County

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds