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Millwall vs Derby prediction & odds

Millwall

17:00

Kick-off Sat 31 Oct, 17:00

Derby

Odds 1X2

1Millwall1.74Nito’s pickXDraw3.952Derby5.00

MillwallvsDerby

Nito’s pick1.70

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Match result (1X2)Millwall

1.70

65%Confidence

Nito’s note: A reasonable lean, not a certainty: about 65% by our numbers.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Championship
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct 17:00 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Match result (1X2)Millwall65%Confidence1.70Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.70 means bookmakers give it 59%; Nito's confidence is 65% (+6 pts)
Millwall won 1 of their last 5 (goals 6–7); Derby won 0 (goals 4–8)
In the table Millwall are 13th with 15 pts, Derby 23rd with 7 pts
In 44 meetings Millwall won 18, Derby won 11, 15 were drawn

Nito’s note: A reasonable lean, not a certainty: about 65% by our numbers.

All our picks for this match

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Every market where our confidence is at least 60%

Our picks for this match

Match result (1X2)MillwallHigh confidence

Confidence65%

Indicative price1.70

We rate Millwall to win at 65% — the price of 1.70 implies only 59%.

Both teams to scoreNo

Confidence60%

Indicative price1.95

We rate Both teams to score: No at 60% — the price of 1.95 implies only 51%.

Picks can change until kick-off; the version live at kick-off is the one settled, at a flat 1-unit stake. Quarter lines are settled as two half-stakes. 18+

Today's acca →

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Millwall56%1.70

Draw24%3.95

Derby19%5.00

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 2.8%

Millwall1.7456%Draw3.9525%Derby5.0019%

Double chance

Millwall or Draw1.13Millwall or Derby1.21Draw or Derby2.09

1st-half resultmargin 5.8%

Millwall2.2243%Draw2.3840%Derby5.3518%

More markets (1)

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Millwall1.9450%Derby1.9250%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

18Millwall wins

15Draws

11Derby wins

Last matches: Millwall

24.10.26EFL ChampionshipPortsmouthMillwall21L
17.10.26EFL ChampionshipMillwallLincoln22D
13.10.26EFL ChampionshipMillwallSwansea01L
10.10.26EFL ChampionshipPrestonMillwall01W
19.09.26EFL ChampionshipMillwallWest Ham United22D

Last matches: Derby

24.10.26EFL ChampionshipSheffield UtdDerby11D
17.10.26EFL ChampionshipDerbyStoke01L
14.10.26EFL ChampionshipQPRDerby41L
10.10.26EFL ChampionshipDerbyWrexham11D
19.09.26EFL ChampionshipBurnleyDerby11D

Head-to-head matches

10.03.26EFL ChampionshipMillwallDerby10W
10.12.25EFL ChampionshipDerbyMillwall11D
22.02.25ChampionshipDerbyMillwall01W
19.10.24ChampionshipMillwallDerby11D
23.02.22ChampionshipDerbyMillwall12W
06.11.21ChampionshipMillwallDerby11D

2.05Avg goals39%Both scored36%Over 2.5

W/D/L from the perspective of the team in the list title (mutual games: the home team of this match).

Millwall vs Derby: head-to-head record

44 meetings since 1988: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

18Millwall wins

15Draws

11Derby wins

48:42Goals (Millwall : Derby)

2.05Goals per match

39%BTTS

55%Over 1.5

36%Over 2.5

16%Over 3.5

Millwall at home: 9-9-430:22 goals in 22 games
Derby at home: 7-6-920:18 goals in 22 games
Millwall's biggest win: 0–3Derby 0–3 Millwall, 27 Dec 2004
Derby's biggest win: 1–5Millwall 1–5 Derby, 14 Sept 2013

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
10 Mar 2026	EFL Championship	Millwall	1–0	Derby
10 Dec 2025	EFL Championship	Derby	1–1	Millwall
22 Feb 2025	Championship	Derby	0–1	Millwall
19 Oct 2024	Championship	Millwall	1–1	Derby
23 Feb 2022	Championship	Derby	1–2	Millwall
6 Nov 2021	Championship	Millwall	1–1	Derby
13 Mar 2021	Championship	Derby	0–1	Millwall
5 Dec 2020	Championship	Millwall	0–1	Derby
20 Jun 2020	Championship	Millwall	2–3	Derby
14 Dec 2019	Championship	Derby	0–1	Millwall
20 Feb 2019	Championship	Derby	0–1	Millwall
18 Aug 2018	Championship	Millwall	2–1	Derby
30 Jan 2018	Championship	Millwall	0–0	Derby
23 Dec 2017	Championship	Derby	3–0	Millwall
25 Apr 2015	Championship	Millwall	3–3	Derby
4 Oct 2014	Championship	Derby	0–0	Millwall
8 Mar 2014	Championship	Derby	0–1	Millwall
14 Sept 2013	Championship	Millwall	1–5	Derby
4 May 2013	Championship	Derby	1–0	Millwall
10 Nov 2012	Championship	Millwall	2–1	Derby

Every meeting we have on record: our match archive plus the head-to-head feed.

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Millwall1W 2D 2L · goals 6–7

L24.10EFL ChampionshipAPortsmouth1–2
D17.10EFL ChampionshipHLincoln2–2
L13.10EFL ChampionshipHSwansea0–1
W10.10EFL ChampionshipAPreston1–0
D19.09EFL ChampionshipHWest Ham United2–2

Derby0W 3D 2L · goals 4–8

D24.10EFL ChampionshipASheffield Utd1–1
L17.10EFL ChampionshipHStoke0–1
L14.10EFL ChampionshipAQPR1–4
D10.10EFL ChampionshipHWrexham1–1
D19.09EFL ChampionshipABurnley1–1

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

MillwallDerby

1.3Goals scored per game0.7

1.6Goals conceded per game1.7

50%Both teams scored50%

70%Over 2.5 goals40%

2Clean sheets1

30%Failed to score40%

1-2-3Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)1-2-2

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

MillwallDerby

Championship 2026/2027 · 8 gamesChampionship 2026/2027 · 8 games

1.9Goals scored0.9

1.9Goals conceded1.8

4.4Corners6.4

15.0Shots12.3

44%Possession49%

1.4Yellow cards2.3

38%Clean sheets13%

13%Failed to score38%

2-1-1Home / away record (W-D-L)1-1-2

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Championship

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
12	Sheffield Utd	12	+1	16	DWLWL
13	Millwall	12	-1	15	LDLWD
14	Bristol City	12	-3	15	DLLDW
22	Burnley	12	-8	8	LLDWD
23	Derby	12	-11	7	DLLDD
24	Preston	12	-15	5	DLLLD

Injuries and absences

Players ruled out or doubtful for this match

Injuries & suspensions

Millwall

✕J. CoburnMuscle Injury
✕C. De NorreMuscle Injury
✕L. JensenMuscle Injury
✕M. LuongoKnee Injury
✕F. MarschallInjury
✕M. ServaisInactive
?T. ArconteAnkle Injury

Derby

✕P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
✕E. CashinInactive
✕M. ClarkeCalf Injury
✕C. ForsythKnee Injury
✕S. LangasInjury
✕D. MurkinHamstring Injury
✕D. SandersonRed Card
✕C. TaylorInjury
✕L. TravisAnkle Injury

✕ out · ? doubtful

About this match

Millwall vs Derby preview

Millwall host Derby in the Championship on Sat, 31 Oct 2026, with kick-off at 17:00.

Form · last 5 matches

MillwallLDLWD6 scored · 7 conceded

DerbyDLLDD4 scored · 8 conceded

Key facts · last 5

MillwallDerby

1.3Goals scored per game0.7

1.6Goals conceded per game1.7

50%Both teams scored50%

70%Over 2.5 goals40%

2Clean sheets1

Head-to-head in numbers

18Millwall wins

15Draws

11Derby wins

44 meetings · 2.0 goals per game · both teams scored in 39%

What's at stake

Millwall13th15 pts · 12 played

Derby23rd7 pts · 12 played

Millwall lead by 8 pts

Our pick

Millwall to winMillwall65%Confidence1.70Price

+1 more picks in the Prediction tab

Read the full match preview

The best available prices are 1.70 on Millwall, 3.95 on the draw and 5.00 on Derby, which is roughly 56%, 24% and 19% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Our strongest pick is Millwall to win with 65% confidence at a best price of 1.70.

We also have Both teams to score: No (60%, 1.95).

Recent form over the last 5: Millwall LDLWD (goals 6–7), Derby DLLDD (goals 4–8).

Both teams scored in 50% of Millwall's recent games and 50% of Derby's; over 2.5 goals landed in 70% and 40% respectively.

Per game, Millwall average 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (clean sheets: 2), Derby 0.7 and 1.7 (clean sheets: 1).

Across 44 head-to-head games the record reads 18–15–11 (wins–draws–losses) from Millwall's side.

Those 44 games averaged 2.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 39% of them.

The last meeting (2026-03-10) ended Millwall 1–0 Derby.

Millwall sit 13th on 15 pts after 12 games, Derby 23rd on 7 pts.

Nito explains: Millwall vs Derby

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Millwall vs Derby mean?

The best prices are 1.70 for a Millwall win, 3.95 for a draw and 5.00 for a Derby win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.70 returns 17.00 if Millwall win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 4.1% removed) that is 56% Millwall, 24% draw and 19% Derby.

What does Nito's pick "Millwall to win" mean?

It wins only if Millwall win; a draw or a Derby win loses. At 1.70, the price implies a 59% chance; Nito's data rates it at 65%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Millwall and Derby matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 50% of Millwall's last 10 matches and 50% of Derby's last 10. In their 44 recorded meetings it was 39%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Millwall reached that in 70% of their last 10 matches, Derby in 40% of their last 10. Their 44 meetings averaged 2.1 goals (36% over 2.5).

What does the form guide LDLWD mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Millwall, last 5: 1 W · 2 D · 2 L (6 scored, 7 conceded). Derby, last 5: 0 W · 3 D · 2 L (4 scored, 8 conceded).

Where do Millwall and Derby stand in the table?

Millwall are 13th with 15 points from 12 games. Derby are 23rd with 7 points from 12 games. The gap between them is 8 points.

Millwall vs Derby: questions & answers

Who will win Millwall vs Derby?

Our pick is Millwall to win with 65% confidence (best price 1.70). Bookmaker odds imply Millwall 56%, draw 24%, Derby 19%.

Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?

Our both-teams-to-score pick is No (60% confidence, 1.95). Both teams scored in 39% of their 44 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 50% of Millwall's matches and 50% of Derby's.

What are the odds for Millwall vs Derby?

Odds: Millwall 1.70, draw 3.95, Derby 5.00. Our pick Millwall to win is available at 1.70.

When is the Millwall vs Derby kick-off?

Millwall vs Derby kicks off on Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 17:00 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?

44 meetings: Millwall 18 wins, 15 draws, Derby 11 wins. Those 44 games averaged 2.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 39% of them.

Other Championship matches on 31 Oct

All Championship fixtures

Millwall vs Derby prediction & odds

Millwall

Derby

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

All our picks for this match

Our picks for this match

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds