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Marseille vs Toulouse prediction & odds

Marseille

21:45

Kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 21:45

Toulouse

Odds 1X2

1Marseille1.98XDraw4.052Toulouse3.58

MarseillevsToulouse

Nito’s pick1.93

Nito’s pick

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Our strongest pick for this match, with the current price

Asian handicap -0.5Toulouse +0.5

1.93

60%Confidence

Do you agree with Nito's pick?

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Why Nito chose it →

Match information

Competition, kick-off in your time zone, venue and referee

Match information

Competition: Ligue 1
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov 21:45 EET

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Confidence is our model's estimated chance that the pick wins. 65% means we expect it to land about 2 times in 3. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

The pick, the price and the numbers behind it

Asian handicap -0.5Toulouse +0.560%Confidence1.93Price

Why
?
Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Best price 1.93 means bookmakers give it 52%; Nito's confidence is 60% (+8 pts)
Toulouse won 2 of their last 5 (goals 10–6); Marseille won 3 (goals 11–7)
In the table Toulouse are 11th with 10 pts, Marseille 8th with 12 pts
In 50 meetings Toulouse won 8, Marseille won 21, 21 were drawn

Nito’s note: Close call. 60% is barely past our bar: a lean, not a lock.

Win probability

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds. We remove the bookmaker's margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Bookmaker 1X2 prices turned into chances, with the margin removed

Marseille49%1.98

Draw24%4.05

Toulouse27%3.58

Probabilities derived from live 1X2 odds (bookmaker margin removed).

Odds comparison

Prices come from our odds feed and are indicative — the bookmaker’s own price may differ. Arrows show how the price moved since we first recorded it.

Match odds by market, from our odds feed. ↑ ↓ = the price moved since we first saw it

Odds

Match result (1X2)margin 3.1%

Marseille1.9849%Draw4.0524%Toulouse3.5827%

Double chance

Marseille or Draw1.22Marseille or Toulouse1.18Draw or Toulouse1.90

Total goals 2.5margin 3.6%

Over 2.51.5562%Under 2.52.5638%

More markets (2)

1st-half resultmargin 15.1%

Marseille2.1840%Draw2.3637%Toulouse3.7323%

Odd / even goalsmargin 3.6%

Marseille1.9450%Toulouse1.9250%

Indicative prices from our odds feed; % = de-vigged probability. The bookmaker’s own price may differ — check it before you bet. 18+ · T&Cs apply.

All markets →

Value bets · Dropping odds

Head-to-head

Results between the two teams and each team's latest matches. W win · D draw · L loss

Head-to-head

21Marseille wins

21Draws

8Toulouse wins

Last matches: Marseille

25.10.26Ligue 1MarseilleLe Havre43W
22.10.26Europa LeagueSturm GrazMarseille10L
18.10.26Ligue 1AngersMarseille25W
15.10.26Europa LeagueMarseilleOlympiacos Piraeus01L
11.10.26Ligue 1TroyesMarseille02W

Last matches: Toulouse

25.10.26Ligue 1ToulouseTroyes00D

Marseille vs Toulouse: head-to-head record

50 meetings since 1999: results, goals, BTTS and over/under.

21Marseille wins

21Draws

8Toulouse wins

77:47Goals (Marseille : Toulouse)

2.48Goals per match

54%BTTS

68%Over 1.5

42%Over 2.5

28%Over 3.5

Marseille at home: 11-10-341:22 goals in 24 games
Toulouse at home: 5-11-1025:36 goals in 26 games
Marseille's biggest win: 6–1Marseille 6–1 Toulouse, 29 Dec 2022
Toulouse's biggest win: 3–0Toulouse 3–0 Marseille, 24 Feb 2007

Meetings (20 most recent)

Date	Competition	Home	Score	Away
7 Mar 2026	Ligue 1	Toulouse	0–1	Marseille
4 Mar 2026	Coupe de France	Marseille	2–3

Form, last 5 matches

Newest first: result, date and competition, opponent, score. H = home, A = away

Marseille3W 0D 2L · goals 11–7

W25.10Ligue 1HLe Havre4–3
L22.10Europa LeagueASturm Graz0–1
W18.10Ligue 1AAngers5–2
L15.10Europa LeagueHOlympiacos Piraeus0–1
W11.10Ligue 1ATroyes2–0

Toulouse2W 3D 0L · goals 10–6

D25.10Ligue 1HTroyes0–0
W16.10Ligue 1ALe Mans3–0
D10.10Ligue 1AMonaco2–2
W19.09Ligue 1HLe Havre3–2
D

Goals and trends · last 10

Averages and shares from each team's latest matches, all competitions

MarseilleToulouse

1.5Goals scored per game1.3

1.9Goals conceded per game1.6

50%Both teams scored50%

50%Over 2.5 goals70%

1Clean sheets2

40%Failed to score40%

1-0-3Home team at home · away team away (W-D-L)1-3-1

Season stats

Per game this season, each team in its own league

MarseilleToulouse

Ligue 1 2026/2027 · 3 gamesLigue 1 2026/2027 · 5 games

2.0Goals scored1.4

1.7Goals conceded1.8

5.0Corners4.6

13.7Shots14.8

64%Possession52%

0.3Yellow cards1.6

33%Clean sheets0%

33%Failed to score40%

1-0-1Home / away record (W-D-L)0-2-0

Standings

Both teams highlighted, with the clubs around them

Table · Ligue 1

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Form
7	Lens	8	+4	13	WWWLD
8	Marseille	8	+5	12	WWWLL
9	Lorient	8	+1	12	DWWLD
10	Nice	8	-2	11	WLWWL
11	Toulouse	8	+1	10	DWDWD
12	Auxerre	8	-6	10

Injuries and absences

Players ruled out or doubtful for this match

Injuries & suspensions

Marseille

✕D. CorneliusHip Injury

Toulouse

✕R. MessaliThigh Injury

✕ out · ? doubtful

Comments

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About this match

Marseille vs Toulouse preview

Ligue 1 fixture: Marseille welcome Toulouse on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 (21:45 kick-off).

Form · last 5 matches

MarseilleWLWLW11 scored · 7 conceded

ToulouseDWDWD10 scored · 6 conceded

Key facts · last 5

MarseilleToulouse

1.5Goals scored per game1.3

1.9Goals conceded per game1.6

50%Both teams scored50%

50%Over 2.5 goals70%

1Clean sheets2

Head-to-head in numbers

21Marseille wins

21Draws

8Toulouse wins

50 meetings · 2.5 goals per game · both teams scored in 54%

What's at stake

Marseille8th12 pts · 8 played

Nito explains: Marseille vs Toulouse

What the numbers on this page mean, in plain words. Every figure comes from our match data.

What do the odds for Marseille vs Toulouse mean?

The best prices are 1.98 for a Marseille win, 4.05 for a draw and 3.58 for a Toulouse win. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked: 10 at 1.98 returns 19.80 if Marseille win. As chances (1 ÷ odds, with the bookmaker margin of 3.1% removed) that is 49% Marseille, 24% draw and 27% Toulouse.

What does Nito's pick "Asian handicap: Toulouse +0.5" mean?

Asian handicap: +0.5 goals are added to Toulouse's final score, and the bet wins if Toulouse are still ahead after that. At 1.93, the price implies a 52% chance; Nito's data rates it at 60%. A pick is an opinion based on data, not a certainty.

How often do Marseille and Toulouse matches see both teams score?

Both teams to score (BTTS) pays on "Yes" when each side scores at least once. It happened in 50% of Marseille's last 10 matches and 50% of Toulouse's last 10. In their 50 recorded meetings it was 54%.

What does over 2.5 goals mean for this match?

Over 2.5 goals wins when the match has 3 or more goals. Marseille reached that in 50% of their last 10 matches, Toulouse in 70% of their last 10. Their 50 meetings averaged 2.5 goals (42% over 2.5).

What does the form guide WLWLW mean?

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, newest result first. Marseille, last 5: 3 W · 0 D · 2 L (11 scored, 7 conceded). Toulouse, last 5: 2 W · 3 D · 0 L (10 scored, 6 conceded).

Where do Marseille and Toulouse stand in the table?

Marseille are 8th with 12 points from 8 games. Toulouse are 11th with 10 points from 8 games. The gap between them is 2 points.

Marseille vs Toulouse: questions & answers

Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?

Our pick is Asian handicap: Toulouse +0.5 with 60% confidence (best price 1.93). Bookmaker odds imply Marseille 49%, draw 24%, Toulouse 27%.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Toulouse?

Both teams scored in 54% of their 50 previous meetings. In recent games both teams scored in 50% of Marseille's matches and 50% of Toulouse's.

What are the odds for Marseille vs Toulouse?

Odds: Marseille 1.98, draw 4.05, Toulouse 3.58. Our pick Asian handicap: Toulouse +0.5 is available at 1.93.

When is the Marseille vs Toulouse kick-off?

Marseille vs Toulouse kicks off on Sun, 1 Nov 2026 at 21:45 (GMT+2).

What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Toulouse?

50 meetings: Marseille 21 wins, 21 draws, Toulouse 8 wins. Those 50 games averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 54% of them.

Other Ligue 1 matches on 1 Nov

All Ligue 1 fixtures

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction & odds

Marseille

Toulouse

Nito’s pick

Match information

Match information

Our pick: why Nito chose it

Why?Value = our confidence minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Plus means the price is higher than our numbers say it should be.

Win probability

Odds comparison

Odds