Cyprus vs Montenegro preview: UEFA Nations League, Sunday
Second-placed Cyprus host leaders Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League. The prices lean towards the visitors, while our model prefers a goals angle.
Cyprus welcome 
Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 14:00 GMT, with second hosting first. The visitors arrive top of the table and in fine form, while Cyprus are unbeaten in their last four. The market leans towards Montenegro, but not by a wide margin.
What is at stake
Montenegro sit 1st on 13 points from 5 games, with a goal difference of 4. Cyprus are 2nd on 8 points from 5 games (goal difference 2), and Armenia are 3rd on 5 points. In short, this is a meeting between the two sides at the top of the table, and a home win would be Cyprus's best chance of tightening things up. A Montenegro win would strengthen their hold on 1st place. You can follow the full standings on our UEFA Nations League page.
Recent form
Cyprus read D W W D L over their last five, all in this competition. The loss came in the very first of those, 1-2 away to Montenegro. Since then they have drawn 0-0 in Latvia, beaten Armenia 2-0 and Latvia 2-1 at home, and drawn 1-1 in Armenia. Over their last 10 matches they average 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, with both teams scoring in 50% of games, over 2.5 goals in just 30%, and 3 clean sheets.
Montenegro's run is W D W W W. They beat Cyprus 2-1, won 3-2 in Armenia and 2-1 in Latvia, drew 0-0 at home to Armenia and then beat Latvia 2-1 at home. Across their last 10 they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, with both teams scoring in 70% of games and over 2.5 goals in 70%. They also kept 3 clean sheets.
The contrast is clear: Cyprus games tend to be tighter, Montenegro games tend to be more open.
Head-to-head
The record favours the visitors. In 6 meetings, Cyprus have 0 wins, there have been 3 draws and Montenegro have won 3. Those games averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% and over 2.5 goals in 50%.
The most recent meetings:
- 25 September 2026: Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus (UEFA Nations League)
- 17 November 2020: Montenegro 4-0 Cyprus (UEFA Nations League)
- 5 September 2020: Cyprus 0-2 Montenegro (UEFA Nations League)
- 23 March 2018: Cyprus 0-0 Montenegro (Friendly)
We have no absence information for this one, so we're not factoring in any team news.
What the prices say
The best available 1X2 prices are 3.25 for a Cyprus win, 3.45 for the draw and 2.27 for a Montenegro win. Those translate to implied chances of roughly 30% home, 28% draw and 42% away. So Montenegro are favourites, but the market still gives the hosts and the draw a combined chance that is bigger than the visitors' share. Given Cyprus's solid recent run, that feels fair: this is not a one-sided fixture.
Our pick
Rather than pick a winner, our model looks at goals: Over 1.5 total goals at 1.3, which implies about 77%. The reasoning is that Montenegro's matches have been lively, with over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 10, and the head-to-head averages 2.5 goals. The caution is on the other side: Cyprus have played plenty of tight games, including a 0-0 in Latvia, and the 2018 meeting finished goalless. That is why we see this as a reasonable view rather than anything more.
For line-ups and live stats, check the match page, and see how our picks have fared over time on our track record page.
For information only — not betting advice. Prices are the best available at publication. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Sources
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