Latvia vs Armenia preview: UEFA Nations League, Sunday 15 November
Two sides short on goals meet in the UEFA Nations League. Armenia are slight favourites on the prices, but our model is more interested in the goals line.
Latvia host 
Armenia in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 14:00 GMT, and neither side arrives in especially good shape. The prices lean towards the visitors, but what jumps out of the numbers is how rarely either team has found the net lately.
What's at stake
The table gives this game a clear shape. Armenia sit 3rd with 5 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -1. Latvia are 4th with 1 point from 5 games and a goal difference of -5. Cyprus are 2nd on 8 points.
For Latvia, a single point from five matches means they are still waiting for a win in this group, so this is a chance to finally put something on the board. For Armenia, it is a chance to strengthen their hold on 3rd. You can follow the full standings on our UEFA Nations League page.
Recent form
Latvia (L L L D L) have had a difficult run. Three of their last four results were identical 1-2 defeats: away to Montenegro, away to Cyprus and at home to Montenegro. Before that came a 0-0 draw with Cyprus and a 0-2 loss in Armenia.
Across their last 10 games, Latvia have scored 0.6 goals per game and conceded 1.8, with 2 clean sheets. Interestingly, 60% of those matches went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in 50%, so their games haven't always been quiet, even if their own attack has been.
Armenia (D D L L W) are hardly flying either. Their latest outing was a 1-1 home draw with Cyprus, after a 0-0 away to Montenegro. Before that they lost 0-2 in Cyprus and 2-3 at home to Montenegro, while their one win in this run was that 2-0 against Latvia.
Over their last 10, Armenia average 0.9 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, with 2 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, but only 30% went over 2.5 goals, which is a notably low figure.
Head-to-head
These two have met 7 times: Armenia have won 4, Latvia 2, with 1 draw. Those games averaged 2.43 goals, with 43% going over 2.5 and both teams scoring in 43%.
The most recent meetings:
- Armenia 2-0 Latvia (UEFA Nations League, September 2026)
- Latvia 1-2 Armenia (UEFA Nations League, November 2024)
- Armenia 4-1 Latvia (UEFA Nations League, September 2024)
- Latvia 2-0 Armenia (UEFA European Championship Qualifiers, October 2023)
Armenia have had the better of the recent exchanges, though the 4-1 is something of an outlier in an otherwise fairly low-scoring series.
What the prices say, and our pick
The best 1X2 prices are 3.15 for Latvia, 3.25 for the draw and 2.4 for Armenia. That works out at roughly 30% for a home win, 30% for a draw and 40% for an away win. In other words, Armenia are favoured, but not by much; this looks fairly open, and a draw is very much in play.
Our model prefers to look at the goals. Its pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.65, a price that implies about 61%. The reasoning is simple: Latvia average 0.6 goals per game, Armenia 0.9, and only 30% of Armenia's last 10 went over 2.5. The obvious counterpoint is Latvia's 60% over-2.5 rate, driven largely by their leaky defence, so this is our model's view rather than anything close to certain.
For line-ups, stats and live updates, head to the match page. You can also browse today's tips or check how our picks have performed on our track record page.
For information only — not betting advice. Prices are the best available at publication. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Sources
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