Arsenal vs Hull preview: Premier League, Saturday 7 November
Top of the table hosts 11th as Arsenal welcome Hull. The prices make Arsenal heavy favourites, so our model looks at the goals market instead.
Arsenal, top of the Premier League, host 
Hull on Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 15:00 GMT. The prices make the home side overwhelming favourites, so the more interesting question may be how many goals we see rather than who wins.
What's at stake
Arsenal sit 1st with 24 points from 9 games and a goal difference of 9, with Manchester City 2nd on 21 points. A home win would keep the leaders ahead of the chasing pack heading into the next round.
Hull are 11th on 11 points, level with Leeds in 12th and just behind Aston Villa, who are 10th on 12. That is a congested mid-table, so even a point at the Premier League leaders would matter for Hull. You can see the wider picture on our Premier League page.
Recent form
Arsenal's last five read D W W L W. The standout is a 1-0 win away at Liverpool in the league on 1 November, followed by a 2-1 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 4 November. The one defeat was a 1-2 EFL Cup loss at Fleetwood, and they also drew 2-2 with Real Madrid in the International Champions Cup. Over their last 10 games Arsenal have scored 1.6 goals per game and conceded 1.1, with 4 clean sheets. In 70% of those matches there were over 2.5 goals.
Hull arrive with D D L D L, and no win in that run. Three draws, two of them 2-2 (Ipswich and Everton, both at home), suggest games involving them have stayed open. Across 10 games they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, both teams scored in 60% of them, and 50% went over 2.5 goals. They have kept 2 clean sheets in that sample.
One thing to keep an eye on, as interpretation rather than fact: Arsenal played away in Europe on the Wednesday, so there's a quick turnaround before kick-off.
Head-to-head
The history leans heavily one way. In 15 meetings, Arsenal have won 11, there have been 3 draws and Hull have won 1. These games have averaged 3.07 goals, with both teams scoring in 53% and over 2.5 goals in 73%.
The most recent meetings:
- 11 February 2017: Arsenal 2-0 Hull (Premier League)
- 17 September 2016: Hull 1-4 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 8 March 2016: Hull 0-4 Arsenal (FA Cup)
- 20 February 2016: Arsenal 0-0 Hull (FA Cup)
Those are old results, though, so they say more about pattern than about these two squads today.
What the prices say
The best 1X2 prices are 1.17 for Arsenal, 8.28 for the draw and 18 for Hull. That translates to implied chances of roughly 83% home, 12% draw and 5% away. In other words, the market sees this as very one-sided, and at 1.17 there isn't much value to talk about on the home win, at least in our view.
Our pick
Our model prefers the goals market: Over 2.5 goals at a best price of 1.52, which implies about 66%.
The reasoning: Arsenal's games have gone over 2.5 in 70% of their last 10, the head-to-head shows 73% over the line with an average of 3.07 goals, and Hull's recent matches have produced plenty of draws with goals on both sides. The risk is clear too: Arsenal have kept 4 clean sheets in 10, Hull's own over-2.5 rate is only 50%, and a comfortable 2-0 would fall short. It's a lean, not a certainty.
Full stats are on the match page, more picks are in today's tips, and you can check how our model has done on our track record.
For information only — not betting advice. Prices are the best available at publication. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Sources
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