Nottingham vs Manchester City: Premier League preview, Saturday
Bottom-three Nottingham host second-placed Manchester City on Saturday. Our model leans towards goals, though Nottingham's own numbers argue for caution.
Nottingham welcome Manchester City in the Premier League on Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 17:30 GMT, and on paper the two clubs could hardly be further apart in the table. One side is scoring freely, the other is struggling to find the net at all. The interesting question, from our point of view, is less about who wins and more about how many goals we might see.
What is at stake
After 9 matches each, Manchester City sit 2nd on 21 points with a goal difference of 10, behind leaders Arsenal on 24. Brighton are close behind in 3rd on 19 points, so City have little room to drop points if they want to stay in touch at the top.
At the other end, Nottingham are 19th with 6 points and a goal difference of -6. They sit just below Crystal Palace (7 points) and just above Sunderland (5 points), so the bottom of the table is tightly packed. You can follow the full standings on our Premier League page.
Recent form
Nottingham's sequence reads L D L L L. The most recent outing was a 0-2 defeat away at Brentford on 31 October, after a 1-1 draw at Ipswich. Before that came narrow home losses to Arsenal (0-1) and Coventry (0-1), with a 1-3 defeat at Crystal Palace in between.
Over their last 10 matches, Nottingham average 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, with just 1 clean sheet. Only 30% of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 40%.
Manchester City's run is more of a zigzag: W L W L W. They beat RB Leipzig 3-2 away in the UEFA Champions League on 4 November, but lost 0-1 at home to Brighton in the league on 31 October, having beaten the same opponents 3-2 in the EFL Cup days earlier. A 1-2 defeat at Aston Villa sits alongside a 5-1 win over AEK Athens.
City's 10-match numbers are striking: 3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, both teams scoring in 70%, and a remarkable 90% of matches going over 2.5 goals. They have kept 2 clean sheets in that spell.
Head-to-head
Across 50 meetings, the record is almost perfectly balanced: 17 Nottingham wins, 15 draws and 18 for Manchester City. These games average 2.72 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% and over 2.5 goals landing in 54%.
The recent meetings:
- 4 March 2026: Manchester City 2-2 Nottingham (Premier League)
- 27 December 2025: Nottingham 1-2 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 27 April 2025: Nottingham 0-2 Manchester City (FA Cup)
- 8 March 2025: Nottingham 1-0 Manchester City (Premier League)
Interestingly, Nottingham have taken something from City more than once in that list, so the gap in the table hasn't always shown up on the pitch.
Our pick
We don't have 1X2 prices for this one, so we'll focus on the goals market, where our model has a view: Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, a price that implies a 60% chance.
The case for it rests mainly on Manchester City, whose matches have sailed over the line with great regularity, and on a head-to-head average of 2.72. The case against is Nottingham themselves: their games have been low-scoring, and if they sit deep and frustrate, this could stay tight for a long time. That tension is why we see it as a reasonable lean rather than anything close to certain.
For line-ups and live stats, check the match page. You can browse the rest of today's tips and see how our picks have performed on our track record page.
For information only — not betting advice. Prices are the best available at publication. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Sources
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